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Summary for Hurricane NORBERT (EP4/EP142014)

2014-09-04 07:53:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...NORBERT CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 3 the center of NORBERT was located near 20.1, -109.9 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

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Hurricane NORBERT Public Advisory Number 7A

2014-09-04 07:53:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1100 PM PDT WED SEP 03 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 040553 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 1100 PM PDT WED SEP 03 2014 ...NORBERT CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 109.9W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LA PAZ TO CABO SAN LAZARO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO * NORTH OF LA PAZ TO SAN EVARISTO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.9 WEST. NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE PENINSULA ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA ON FRIDAY. RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY. SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane NORBERT Graphics

2014-09-04 05:07:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2014 02:46:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2014 03:03:42 GMT

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Hurricane NORBERT Forecast Discussion Number 7

2014-09-04 04:59:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT WED SEP 03 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 040259 TCDEP4 HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 800 PM PDT WED SEP 03 2014 Norbert continues to intensify this evening. Evening visible satellite images showed a symmetric central dense overcast feature with curved convective bands wrapping around the center. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW/CIMMS ADT were between 65 and 77 kt, and the initial wind speed has been increased to 70 kt for this advisory. Norbert is the ninth hurricane to form in the eastern Pacific basin this season. The outflow has become well established, except over the northeastern portion of the cyclone where there is a hint of light to moderate northeasterly shear. However, the shear is not expected to be strong enough to inhibit strengthening during the next day or so while Norbert remains over warm water. The NHC forecast is close to the SHIPS model through 36 h and is similar to the previous advisory. After that time, Norbert will be approaching cooler waters and a drier and more stable airmass, which should cause weakening to commence. A faster rate of weakening is forecast in 48 to 72 hours when the cyclone moves over SSTs below 26C. The hurricane appears to have turned northwestward with an initial motion of 305/7 kt. Norbert should continue on a general northwestward motion during the next several days around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge that extends westward across northern Mexico. The model guidance is in good agreement on the general heading of the cyclone, although there are some differences in the forward speed of Norbert later in the period. Much of the guidance now indicates a faster forward speed late in the period, with the GFS showing a deeper cyclone moving even faster and farther north than the ECMWF, UKMET, and HWRF. The updated NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous advisory to be in better agreement with the multi-model consensus, but is not nearly as fast as the GFS. Moisture indirectly related to Norbert being pulled northward around the eastern side of cyclone's large circulation is expected to spread across northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States during the next few days. This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these areas. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 19.9N 109.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 20.7N 110.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 21.7N 111.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 22.8N 112.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 23.7N 113.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 25.3N 115.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 27.0N 117.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 29.0N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown

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Summary for Hurricane NORBERT (EP4/EP142014)

2014-09-04 04:44:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...NORBERT A LITTLE STRONGER... ...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 3 the center of NORBERT was located near 19.9, -109.8 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

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