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Tropical Storm NORBERT Graphics

2014-09-03 17:12:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2014 15:11:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2014 15:04:31 GMT

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Tropical Storm NORBERT Forecast Discussion Number 5

2014-09-03 16:44:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT WED SEP 03 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 031444 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 800 AM PDT WED SEP 03 2014 Norbert has become significantly better organized this morning. The central dense overcast has become more symmetric with more prominent banding around the center. Microwave images also show that the inner core is becoming better defined, with the likely first stages of a primitive eye. The initial wind speed is set to 55 kt, at the top end of the subjective Dvorak estimates, although the latest objective numbers are higher. With the improvement in the inner core, light-to-moderate shear, and very warm waters, future strengthening seems quite likely. In fact, rapid intensification is a distinct possibility, with the SHIPS-RI showing about a 1-in-3 chance of Norbert becoming 30 kt stronger in the next 24 hours. Considering the environmental factors and the low bias of the deterministic guidance so far, the new NHC intensity forecast is raised considerably from the previous one, about 5 kt above the highest guidance through 48 hours. After that time, cooler waters and a more stable atmosphere are expected to weaken the cyclone. The NHC forecast is blended with the previous forecast and the intensity consensus at long range. With recent microwave and visible imagery, it appears that Norbert has been moving westward over the past few hours. However, a more representative long-term motion is 295/8. Mid-level ridging is expected to weaken later today over northwestern Mexico, which should cause Norbert to turn more to the northwest. While all of the reliable guidance keeps the center of the storm offshore of Baja California Sur, Norbert should come close enough to bring tropical- storm-force winds to the state. The models have shifted somewhat southward since the last cycle, and with the recent westward motion, it makes sense to adjust the NHC forecast a little farther south for the first day or so. There hasn't been much change to the guidance beyond day 3, so the new forecast is basically an update to the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 19.6N 108.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 20.1N 109.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 20.9N 110.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 21.8N 111.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 22.6N 111.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 24.4N 113.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 25.6N 116.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 27.0N 117.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

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Summary for Tropical Storm NORBERT (EP4/EP142014)

2014-09-03 16:41:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...NORBERT EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 3 the center of NORBERT was located near 19.6, -108.8 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm NORBERT Forecast Advisory Number 5

2014-09-03 16:41:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 03 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 031441 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 1500 UTC WED SEP 03 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LA PAZ TO SANTA FE MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 108.8W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 150SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 108.8W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 108.4W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.1N 109.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.9N 110.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.8N 111.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.6N 111.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 24.4N 113.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 25.6N 116.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 27.0N 117.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 108.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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