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Hurricane NORBERT Public Advisory Number 7
2014-09-04 04:44:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED SEP 03 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 040244 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 800 PM PDT WED SEP 03 2014 ...NORBERT A LITTLE STRONGER... ...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 109.8W ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO CABO SAN LAZARO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM CABO SAN LAZARO NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LA PAZ TO CABO SAN LAZARO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO * NORTH OF LA PAZ TO SAN EVARISTO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST. NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE PENINSULA ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA ON FRIDAY. RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY. SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane NORBERT Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2014-09-04 04:44:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 04 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 040244 PWSEP4 HURRICANE NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 0300 UTC THU SEP 04 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 14(26) 1(27) X(27) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 8 30(38) 8(46) 2(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 5 21(26) 7(33) 2(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) SAN JOSE CABO 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 2 9(11) 16(27) 5(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) LA PAZ 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 8(14) 5(19) 1(20) X(20) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CULIACAN 34 2 2( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) MAZATLAN 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 15 4(19) 3(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) ISLA CLARION 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane NORBERT Forecast Advisory Number 7
2014-09-04 04:44:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 04 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 040244 TCMEP4 HURRICANE NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 0300 UTC THU SEP 04 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO CABO SAN LAZARO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM CABO SAN LAZARO NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LA PAZ TO CABO SAN LAZARO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO * NORTH OF LA PAZ TO SAN EVARISTO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 109.8W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 160SE 160SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 109.8W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 109.6W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.7N 110.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.7N 111.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.8N 112.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.7N 113.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 25.3N 115.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 27.0N 117.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 29.0N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 109.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane NORBERT Graphics
2014-09-04 01:38:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2014 23:38:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2014 21:03:42 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane NORBERT (EP4/EP142014)
2014-09-04 01:36:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORBERT BECOMES A HURRICANE... As of 5:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 3 the center of NORBERT was located near 19.8, -109.6 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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