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Hurricane NORBERT Forecast Discussion Number 8

2014-09-04 10:51:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT THU SEP 04 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 040851 TCDEP4 HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 200 AM PDT THU SEP 04 2014 Recent microwave images, including a NASA GPM overpass at 0516 UTC, indicate that Norbert has lost some organization during the past few hours due to easterly vertical wind shear. The low-level center is in the northeastern part of the central convection with a mid-level eye displaced to the southwest of the low-level center. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are unchanged at 77 and 65 kt, and the CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique estimates an intensity of 65 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 70 kt. The microwave data indicate that the center of Norbert made a northward turn since the previous advisory. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 325/5. Norbert should continue on a general northwestward motion during the next three days around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge that extends westward across northern Mexico. This part of the forecast track has been nudged to the east based on the current position and motion. After 72 hours, the guidance becomes more divergent due to disagreements in how Norbert interacts with a mid/upper-level trough over the northeastern Pacific. The GFS and NAVGEM forecast Norbert to turn northward, while the ECMWF is forecasting a westward turn and a slower forward speed. The other models are spread between these extremes. The later part of the new track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and is showing a slow northward motion as a compromise between the extremes. The dynamical models now suggest that moderate shear should continue for the next 24-36 hours, and as a result the intensity guidance shows less strengthening than 6 hours ago. The new intensity forecast is thus nudged downward. Norbert should start weakening by 48 hours as it reaches cooler sea surface temperatures, and the system is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The new intensity forecast is in best agreement with the intensity consensus. Moisture indirectly related to Norbert being pulled northward around the eastern side of the cyclone's large circulation is expected to spread across northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States during the next few days. This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these areas. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 20.5N 109.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 21.2N 110.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 22.2N 111.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 23.1N 112.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 23.9N 113.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 25.5N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 27.5N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 29.0N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven

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Summary for Hurricane NORBERT (EP4/EP142014)

2014-09-04 10:50:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF NORBERT IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Sep 4 the center of NORBERT was located near 20.5, -109.7 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

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Hurricane NORBERT Public Advisory Number 8

2014-09-04 10:50:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT THU SEP 04 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 040850 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 200 AM PDT THU SEP 04 2014 ...MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF NORBERT IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 109.7W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LA PAZ TO CABO SAN LAZARO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO * NORTH OF LA PAZ TO SAN EVARISTO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST. NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY...AND MOVE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA ON FRIDAY. RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY. SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY. THE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane NORBERT Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2014-09-04 10:50:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 04 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 040850 PWSEP4 HURRICANE NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 0900 UTC THU SEP 04 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 13(26) 1(27) X(27) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 23 34(57) 4(61) 1(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 34 12 28(40) 4(44) 1(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) SAN JOSE CABO 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LA PAZ 34 3 17(20) 15(35) 3(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) LA PAZ 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 8(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LOS MOCHIS 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CULIACAN 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) MAZATLAN 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 5 3( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ISLA CLARION 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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