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Tropical Storm NORBERT Public Advisory Number 4
2014-09-03 10:55:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED SEP 03 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 030855 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 200 AM PDT WED SEP 03 2014 ...NORBERT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 107.6W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO SANTA FE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO CABO SAN LAZARO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LA PAZ TO SANTA FE MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER THIS MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.6 WEST. NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BY THURSDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER COLIMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF MICHOACAN AND JALISCO IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY AND THURSDAY...AND PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. THE LARGE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY THURSDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm NORBERT Forecast Advisory Number 4
2014-09-03 10:55:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 03 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 030855 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 0900 UTC WED SEP 03 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO SANTA FE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO CABO SAN LAZARO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LA PAZ TO SANTA FE MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 107.6W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 180SE 150SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 107.6W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 107.3W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.0N 108.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.6N 109.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.4N 110.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.3N 110.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.0N 112.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 25.1N 115.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 26.2N 117.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 107.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm NORBERT Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2014-09-03 10:55:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 03 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 030855 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 0900 UTC WED SEP 03 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 11(26) 2(28) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 11(12) 33(45) 19(64) 7(71) 1(72) X(72) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) 13(23) 5(28) X(28) X(28) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 8( 9) 29(38) 19(57) 6(63) 2(65) X(65) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 4(19) 1(20) X(20) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LA PAZ 34 1 3( 4) 12(16) 20(36) 15(51) 3(54) X(54) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 14(21) 5(26) X(26) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 5(13) 2(15) X(15) CULIACAN 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 7(15) 8(23) 1(24) X(24) CULIACAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) SAN BLAS 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) P VALLARTA 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 9(11) 8(19) 3(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 3 5( 8) 5(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm NORBERT Graphics
2014-09-03 07:46:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2014 05:46:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2014 03:05:34 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm NORBERT (EP4/EP142014)
2014-09-03 07:40:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORBERT MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHENING... As of 11:00 PM PDT Tue Sep 2 the center of NORBERT was located near 19.4, -107.2 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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