je.st
news
Tag: norbert
Tropical Storm NORBERT Public Advisory Number 3A
2014-09-03 07:40:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM PDT TUE SEP 02 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 030540 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 1100 PM PDT TUE SEP 02 2014 ...NORBERT MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 107.2W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LA PAZ TO SANTA FE MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.2 WEST. NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER COLIMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF MICHOACAN AND JALISCO IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm NORBERT Graphics
2014-09-03 05:13:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2014 02:40:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2014 03:05:34 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
tropical storm
Tropical Storm NORBERT Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2014-09-03 04:39:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 03 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 030239 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 0300 UTC WED SEP 03 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) 1(17) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 16(18) 22(40) 9(49) 1(50) X(50) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 18(33) 8(41) 1(42) X(42) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) 15(31) 2(33) 1(34) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 10(12) 3(15) 1(16) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) CULIACAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 7(14) 1(15) X(15) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tropical Storm NORBERT Public Advisory Number 3
2014-09-03 04:39:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 02 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 030239 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 02 2014 ...NORBERT NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 106.9W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LA PAZ TO SANTA FE MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST. NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AND A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT...AND APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER COLIMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF MICHOACAN AND JALISCO IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm NORBERT Forecast Discussion Number 3
2014-09-03 04:39:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 02 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 030239 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 02 2014 Norbert has continued to slowly become better organized over the past few hours. Deep convection has increase near the center in a CDO-like feature, and a curved convective band extends into the western semicircle. The initial intensity of 40 kt is based on a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates, and this could be a bit conservative. The SHIPS model shows some moderate northeasterly to easterly shear over the cyclone for the next 2 to 3 days, but otherwise conditions appear favorable for strengthening. There is a fair bit of spread in the intensity guidance, in part due to variability in the track forecast. The HWRF model now shows the cyclone moving over the Baja peninsula, and has trended a bit weaker. On the other hand, the SHIPS model now shows Norbert becoming a hurricane in 36 to 48 hours. The new NHC track takes Norbert over warmer SSTs closer to the Baja peninsula in 2 to 3 days and the NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted upward, showing Norbert becoming a hurricane in 48 hours. This forecast is close to the SHIPS model and the FSU Superensemble. Gradual weakening is forecast at days 3 through 5 as the cyclone moves over cooler waters. Norbert has turned toward the left during the past few hours, with an initial motion estimate of 330/07. The dominant steering mechanism through the period will be a mid-level ridge centered over the southern United States, which should generally steer Norbert northwestward during the next 72 hours and then west-northwestward. Much of the track model guidance has shifted well to the right, or north, for this forecast cycle, especially at 48 hours and beyond. The GFS, GEFS ensemble mean, HWRF, and GFDL are now north of the ECMWF, which was previously along the right side of the guidance envelope. This shift appears to be due to a deeper representation of Norbert and more erosion of the subtropical ridge to the north. The NHC track has been shifted to the right this cycle, and now lies south of the multi-model consensus aid TVCE. The NHC track is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF through 36 hours and is a little south of that model blend afterward. Given the large shift in the guidance and the large spread, confidence in the track forecast is lower than normal and additional adjustments may be needed in future forecast cycles. The rightward shift in the track increases the threat to the southern part of the Baja California peninsula. A tropical storm or hurricane warning could be needed for this area tonight or early Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 19.2N 106.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 19.8N 107.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 20.4N 108.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 21.1N 109.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 21.9N 110.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 23.5N 112.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 24.5N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 25.3N 117.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Sites : [51] [52] [53] [54] [55] [56] [57] [58] [59] [60] [61] [62] [63] [64] next »