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Tropical Storm NORBERT Graphics
2014-09-02 17:13:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2014 14:46:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2014 15:05:33 GMT
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Tropical Storm NORBERT Forecast Discussion Number 1
2014-09-02 16:46:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 02 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 021446 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 02 2014 The area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo now has enough organized convection to be considered a tropical cyclone. Although moderate northeasterly shear is present, banding features are in the southern semicircle of the cyclone along with bursts of convection near the center. The initial wind speed is set to 35 kt in accordance with earlier ASCAT data. Norbert has been moving toward the north-northeast or 020/12. Almost all of the guidance show Norbert turning sharply northward and west-northwestward within 24 hours due to the cyclone leaving the ITCZ and becoming steered by a mid-level high over Mexico. The NHC prediction during this time is on the right side of the guidance envelope, mostly because of the initial motion. After that time, there is some uncertainty in the strength of the ridge over northwestern Mexico, which causes some spread in the model tracks of Norbert while it approaches the southern Baja California peninsula. While the NHC forecast is close to the model consensus after 24 hours, it would not be surprising to see later forecasts be adjusted a bit to the north at longer range, given model trends. The environment near Norbert seems mostly favorable for strengthening during the next few days with the cyclone forecast over warm waters with moderate shear. Given this environment, it is a little surprising that none of the more reliable models makes Norbert a hurricane. Since there is some possibility of land interaction and higher shear, the NHC prediction will be a little above the model consensus, but below the highest guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 17.5N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 18.6N 107.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 19.3N 108.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 19.6N 109.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 20.1N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 21.8N 112.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 23.0N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 23.5N 117.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm NORBERT Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2014-09-02 16:45:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 021445 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 1500 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 8(16) 1(17) X(17) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) 1(14) 1(15) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P VALLARTA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 17(19) 14(33) 5(38) X(38) X(38) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm NORBERT (EP4/EP142014)
2014-09-02 16:45:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORBERT FORMS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Sep 2 the center of NORBERT was located near 17.5, -106.5 with movement NNE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm NORBERT Public Advisory Number 1
2014-09-02 16:45:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 02 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 021445 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 02 2014 ...NORBERT FORMS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 106.5W ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST. NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD BY TONIGHT AND THEN WEST- NORTHWESTWARD BY TOMORROW. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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