je.st
news
Tag: fay
Tropical Storm FAY Forecast Advisory Number 14
2014-10-13 16:37:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 13 2014 000 WTNT22 KNHC 131436 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 1500 UTC MON OCT 13 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 52.2W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......120NE 150SE 180SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..170NE 200SE 360SW 400NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 52.2W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 53.4W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 33.7N 48.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 150SE 220SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.9N 44.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 32.2N 40.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 31.8N 37.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 32.0N 29.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N 52.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm FAY Graphics
2014-10-13 10:49:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 13 Oct 2014 08:49:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 13 Oct 2014 08:47:42 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
tropical storm
Tropical Storm FAY Forecast Discussion Number 13
2014-10-13 10:48:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST MON OCT 13 2014 000 WTNT42 KNHC 130848 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 500 AM AST MON OCT 13 2014 A series of microwave images indicate that Fay has begun extratropical transition. The cloud pattern has become quite asymmetric and the remaining central deep convection, situated well to the northeast of the center of circulation, is decreasing. An earlier AMSU-B overpass showed significant erosion of the southern flank of Fay due to intruding cold, dry, low to mid-level air associated with an approaching strong baroclinic frontal zone. Furthermore, the GFS model-forecast cyclone phase diagram shows Fay completing transition to an asymmetric cold core system in 12 hours or so. A compromise of the objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates keeps the initial intensity at 55 kt for this advisory. Although the cyclone is expected to remain generally in warm water south of the Gulf Stream's north wall, strong, persistent, vertical shear is forecast to further weaken Fay through the 72 hr period. Afterward, the post-tropical cyclone should continue to decay and open up into a trough of low pressure within the aforementioned frontal boundary and dissipate over the northeastern Atlantic. Based on a consensus of the global models, an adjustment to the length of the official forecast has been made, and it now postpones dissipation until day 4. The tropical storm is gradually accelerating eastward and is now moving at 23 kt within the mid-latitude westerlies. Fay is forecast to slow a bit during the next 24 hours, in response to interaction with the cold front, and track eastward to east-southeastward until dissipation. The NHC forecast is close to the TVCA multi-model consensus and the post-tropical cyclone forecast guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 34.3N 55.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 34.3N 51.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 14/0600Z 33.7N 47.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 14/1800Z 32.7N 43.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 15/0600Z 32.1N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 16/0600Z 32.0N 32.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm FAY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2014-10-13 10:48:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 13 2014 000 FONT12 KNHC 130847 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 0900 UTC MON OCT 13 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Summary for Tropical Storm FAY (AT2/AL072014)
2014-10-13 10:47:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FAY ACCELERATING EASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Oct 13 the center of FAY was located near 34.3, -55.3 with movement E at 26 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
tropical storm
Sites : [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] next »