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Remnants of VANCE Public Advisory Number 27

2014-11-05 21:59:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 100 PM PST WED NOV 05 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 052059 TCPEP1 BULLETIN REMNANTS OF VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 100 PM PST WED NOV 05 2014 ...VANCE DISSIPATES OVER WESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.3N 105.2W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM E OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.2 WEST...AND ARE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FARTHER INLAND OVER MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 25 MPH...35 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF VANCE AND THE AREA TO ITS SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AND THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON VANCE. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Remnants of VANCE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27

2014-11-05 21:59:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 05 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 052059 PWSEP1 REMNANTS OF VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 2100 UTC WED NOV 05 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF REMNANTS OF VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 KTS...25 MPH...35 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Remnants of VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 27

2014-11-05 21:59:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 100 PM PST WED NOV 05 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 052059 TCDEP1 REMNANTS OF VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 100 PM PST WED NOV 05 2014 Vance made landfall along the coast of Mexico just southeast of Mazatlan earlier today around 1400 UTC as a tropical depression. Since then, the low-level center of Vance has dissipated while it moved farther inland and interacted with the rugged terrain. Therefore, this is the last advisory issued on Vance by the National Hurricane Center. Even though the tropical cyclone has dissipated, moisture from the remnants of Vance and the area to its south should continue to spread northeastward across Mexico and into the south-central United States. This is producing heavy rains over portions of these areas, which should continue for another day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 23.3N 105.2W 20 KT 25 MPH 12H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Remnants of VANCE Forecast Advisory Number 27

2014-11-05 21:59:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 05 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 052059 TCMEP1 REMNANTS OF VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 2100 UTC WED NOV 05 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 105.2W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 105.2W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 105.5W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 105.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON VANCE. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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