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Tropical Storm VANCE Graphics

2014-11-05 03:47:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 05 Nov 2014 02:47:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 05 Nov 2014 02:45:44 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm VANCE (EP1/EP212014)

2014-11-05 03:46:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...VANCE RAPIDLY WEAKENING... ...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO... As of 7:00 PM PST Tue Nov 4 the center of VANCE was located near 21.5, -108.0 with movement NNE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm VANCE Public Advisory Number 24

2014-11-05 03:46:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 700 PM PST TUE NOV 04 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 050246 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 700 PM PST TUE NOV 04 2014 ...VANCE RAPIDLY WEAKENING... ...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 108.0W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN NORTHWARD TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VANCE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST. VANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF VANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND VANCE COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.30 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE COMBINATION OF VANCE AND MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE STATES OF SINALOA...NAYARIT....AND DURANGO IN WESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY VANCE WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1000 PM PST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...100 AM PST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm VANCE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24

2014-11-05 03:46:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED NOV 05 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 050246 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 0300 UTC WED NOV 05 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAZATLAN 34 13 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) ISLAS MARIAS 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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