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Tropical Storm VANCE Public Advisory Number 23
2014-11-04 21:40:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM PST TUE NOV 04 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 042040 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 100 PM PST TUE NOV 04 2014 ...VANCE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 108.6W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN NORTHWARD TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VANCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.6 WEST. VANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF VANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND VANCE COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE COMBINATION OF VANCE AND MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE STATES OF SINALOA...NAYARIT....AND DURANGO IN WESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY VANCE WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...400 PM PST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...700 PM PST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm VANCE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2014-11-04 21:40:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE NOV 04 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 042040 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 2100 UTC TUE NOV 04 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAZATLAN 34 2 20(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) ISLAS MARIAS 34 9 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm VANCE Forecast Advisory Number 23
2014-11-04 21:40:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE NOV 04 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 042040 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 2100 UTC TUE NOV 04 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN NORTHWARD TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VANCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 108.6W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 108.6W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 108.9W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.1N 107.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 24.4N 106.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 26.5N 106.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 108.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm VANCE Graphics
2014-11-04 18:39:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 04 Nov 2014 17:39:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 04 Nov 2014 15:04:14 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm VANCE (EP1/EP212014)
2014-11-04 18:37:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...VANCE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... As of 10:00 AM PST Tue Nov 4 the center of VANCE was located near 19.8, -108.9 with movement NNE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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