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Tropical Storm VANCE Public Advisory Number 22A
2014-11-04 18:37:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM PST TUE NOV 04 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 041737 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM VANCE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 1000 AM PST TUE NOV 04 2014 ...VANCE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM PST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 108.9W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ENE OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN NORTHWARD TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VANCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 AM PST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS LOCATE NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST. VANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF VANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...115 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND VANCE COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE COMBINATION OF VANCE AND MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE STATES OF SINALOA...NAYARIT....AND DURANGO IN WESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY VANCE WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...100 PM PST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane VANCE Graphics
2014-11-04 15:42:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 04 Nov 2014 14:42:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 04 Nov 2014 14:40:21 GMT
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Hurricane VANCE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2014-11-04 15:39:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE NOV 04 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 041439 PWSEP1 HURRICANE VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 1500 UTC TUE NOV 04 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 8(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) LA PAZ 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CULIACAN 34 1 4( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MAZATLAN 34 1 24(25) 4(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) MAZATLAN 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P VALLARTA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 6 13(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 22
2014-11-04 15:39:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM PST TUE NOV 04 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 041439 TCDEP1 HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 700 AM PST TUE NOV 04 2014 Conventional and microwave satellite data indicate that Vance is losing organization due to the effects of 35-40 kt of vertical wind shear. The cloud pattern has become elongated, and the low-level center is near the southern edge of the convection. The initial intensity is lowered to 75 kt based on various satellite intensity estimates, and this could be a bit generous. The initial motion is 025/11. The GFS, ECMWF, GFDL, and Florida State Superensemble models forecast Vance to move generally northeastward and make landfall on the coast of Mexico in 24-36 hours. The official forecast does likewise, and the new forecast is similar to that of the previous advisory. It cannot be ruled out that Vance will completely shear apart before landfall, with the low-level center moving slower toward the northeast than currently forecast. The large-scale models forecast even stronger shear over Vance during the next 24-36 hours, and this should cause rapid weakening. The new intensity forecast follows this scenario and is in best agreement with the SHIPS model. Although Vance could weaken to a depression by the time it makes landfall, given the uncertainties in intensity prediction it remains prudent to have a tropical storm watch for portions of the coast of Mexico. Moisture from Vance and its remnants should spread northeastward across Mexico and into the south-central United States during the next several days. This is likely to produce heavy rains over portions of these areas through Thursday or Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 19.3N 109.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 21.0N 108.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 23.2N 107.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 25.3N 107.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Hurricane VANCE (EP1/EP212014)
2014-11-04 15:39:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...VANCE RAPIDLY WEAKENING... As of 7:00 AM PST Tue Nov 4 the center of VANCE was located near 19.3, -109.6 with movement NNE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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