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Tropical Depression VANCE Forecast Advisory Number 25
2014-11-05 09:36:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 05 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 050836 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 0900 UTC WED NOV 05 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... NONE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 106.9W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 106.9W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 107.4W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.0N 105.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 106.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm VANCE Graphics
2014-11-05 06:47:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 05 Nov 2014 05:47:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 05 Nov 2014 03:03:45 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm VANCE (EP1/EP212014)
2014-11-05 06:45:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...VANCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY... As of 10:00 PM PST Tue Nov 4 the center of VANCE was located near 21.7, -107.5 with movement NE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm VANCE Public Advisory Number 24A
2014-11-05 06:45:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM PST TUE NOV 04 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 050545 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM VANCE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 1000 PM PST TUE NOV 04 2014 ...VANCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM PST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 107.5W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN NORTHWARD TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VANCE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 PM PST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.5 WEST. VANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF VANCE OR ITS REMNANTS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND VANCE IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE COMBINATION OF VANCE AND MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE STATES OF SINALOA...NAYARIT....AND DURANGO IN WESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY VANCE WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...100 AM PST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 24
2014-11-05 03:47:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM PST TUE NOV 04 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 050247 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 700 PM PST TUE NOV 04 2014 The convective organization of Vance has continued to erode significantly since the previous advisory due to strong south-southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 45 kt and entrainment of drier air. As a result, the initial intensity has been decreased to 45 kt based on a blend of various satellite intensity estimates. Additional rapid weakening is expected until landfall occurs in about 18 hours or so, and Vance could be a tropical depression at that time. After landfall, Vance is expected to quickly dissipate over the mountainous terrain of northwestern Mexico. The initial motion estimate is 025/12 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Vance is expected to remain embedded within south-southwesterly flow on the east side of deep-layer trough for the next 24 hours, which should result in a north-northeastward motion until landfall occurs. Moisture from Vance is spreading northeastward across Mexico and into the south-central United States. This is producing heavy rains over portions of these areas which should continue through Thursday or Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 21.5N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 23.1N 107.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 25.3N 106.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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