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Hurricane VANCE Forecast Advisory Number 22
2014-11-04 15:39:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE NOV 04 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 041439 TCMEP1 HURRICANE VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 1500 UTC TUE NOV 04 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN NORTHWARD TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VANCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 109.6W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 109.6W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 109.8W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.0N 108.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 23.2N 107.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 25.3N 107.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 109.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane VANCE Public Advisory Number 22
2014-11-04 15:39:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM PST TUE NOV 04 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 041439 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 700 AM PST TUE NOV 04 2014 ...VANCE RAPIDLY WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 109.6W ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM ENE OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN NORTHWARD TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VANCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.6 WEST. VANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF VANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND VANCE COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE COMBINATION OF VANCE AND MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE STATES OF SINALOA...NAYARIT....AND DURANGO IN WESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY VANCE WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1000 AM PST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...100 PM PST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane VANCE Graphics
2014-11-04 12:39:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 04 Nov 2014 11:39:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 04 Nov 2014 09:05:08 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane VANCE (EP1/EP212014)
2014-11-04 12:37:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...VANCE WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS... As of 4:00 AM PST Tue Nov 4 the center of VANCE was located near 18.7, -109.8 with movement NNE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Hurricane VANCE Public Advisory Number 21A
2014-11-04 12:37:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM PST TUE NOV 04 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 041137 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE VANCE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 400 AM PST TUE NOV 04 2014 ...VANCE WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS... SUMMARY OF 400 AM PST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 109.8W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN NORTHWARD TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VANCE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 AM PST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST. VANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF VANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND VANCE COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...VANCE AND MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE STATES OF SINALOA...NAYARIT....AND DURANGO IN WESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY VANCE WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...700 AM PST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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