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Hurricane VANCE Graphics
2014-11-04 09:41:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 04 Nov 2014 08:41:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 04 Nov 2014 08:34:56 GMT
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Hurricane VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 21
2014-11-04 09:38:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM PST TUE NOV 04 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 040838 TCDEP1 HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 100 AM PST TUE NOV 04 2014 Satellite images indicate that the anticipated weakening of Vance has begun. The cloud pattern has become decidedly less circular and more ragged over the past several hours, and the overall coverage of deep convection is gradually decreasing. The current intensity is set at 90 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB, although this may be generous given the most recent satellite presentation. More than 30 kt of south-southwesterly vertical shear is currently affecting the hurricane, and this shear is forecast to increase to about 45-55 kt in 24 to 36 hours. Vertical cross sections from the latest GFS model forecast show that most of the tropical cyclone's circulation above 500 mb is removed within the next 24 hours, presumably due to the intense shear. These very hostile dynamical conditions should result in a rather rapid rate of weakening before the tropical cyclone nears the Mexican coast. The official intensity forecast closely follows the latest SHIPS prediction. Although Vance could weaken to a depression by the time it reaches the coast, given the uncertainties in intensity prediction, it is prudent to have a tropical storm watch at this time. It is estimated that the low-level center is near the southwestern edge of the main convective mass, and the initial motion estimate of 025/11 kt is not much different from the previous package. Vance is expected to continue moving north-northeastward to the south and southeast of a mid-level trough over the next day or two. The official track forecast lies between the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions, and lies a little to the east of the multi-model consensus. Moisture from Vance and its remnants should spread northeastward across Mexico and into the south-central United States during the next several days. This is likely to produce heavy rains over portions of these areas through Thursday or Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 18.4N 110.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 19.8N 109.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 22.0N 108.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 24.1N 107.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 26.0N 107.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane VANCE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2014-11-04 09:36:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE NOV 04 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 040836 PWSEP1 HURRICANE VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 0900 UTC TUE NOV 04 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 12(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 13(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) LA PAZ 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CULIACAN 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MAZATLAN 34 1 8( 9) 15(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P VALLARTA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 15(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Hurricane VANCE (EP1/EP212014)
2014-11-04 09:35:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...VANCE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN... As of 1:00 AM PST Tue Nov 4 the center of VANCE was located near 18.4, -110.0 with movement NNE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane VANCE Public Advisory Number 21
2014-11-04 09:35:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM PST TUE NOV 04 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 040835 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 100 AM PST TUE NOV 04 2014 ...VANCE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 110.0W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ESE OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN NORTHWARD TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VANCE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST. VANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF VANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND VANCE COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...VANCE AND MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE STATES OF SINALOA...NAYARIT....AND DURANGO IN WESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY VANCE WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...400 AM PST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...700 AM PST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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