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Summary for Tropical Storm VANCE (EP1/EP212014)
2014-11-05 00:35:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...VANCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... ...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO... As of 4:00 PM PST Tue Nov 4 the center of VANCE was located near 21.1, -108.3 with movement NNE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm VANCE Public Advisory Number 23A
2014-11-05 00:35:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM PST TUE NOV 04 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 042335 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM VANCE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 400 PM PST TUE NOV 04 2014 ...VANCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... ...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM PST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.1N 108.3W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...90 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN NORTHWARD TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VANCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 PM PST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.3 WEST. VANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF VANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...90 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND VANCE COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE COMBINATION OF VANCE AND MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE STATES OF SINALOA...NAYARIT....AND DURANGO IN WESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY VANCE WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...700 PM PST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm VANCE Graphics
2014-11-04 22:09:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 04 Nov 2014 20:43:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 04 Nov 2014 21:04:51 GMT
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Tropical Storm VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 23
2014-11-04 21:41:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM PST TUE NOV 04 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 042041 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 100 PM PST TUE NOV 04 2014 The organization of Vance has decreased significantly over the past several hours due to the effects of 50-60 kt of vertical wind shear. The low-level center is now exposed to the southwest of the main convective mass, and the convection has decreased in both coverage and intensity. The initial intensity is lowered to 55 kt, and this again could be a little generous. The initial motion is 030/12. The guidance has trended eastward and faster since the last advisory, and the dynamical models now forecast the cyclone to make landfall over mainland Mexico in 18-24 hours. The new forecast track lies a little to the east of the previous track, but is west of, and slower than, the consensus models. Continuing strong shear should cause additional rapid weakening. The majority of the guidance forecasts Vance to weaken below tropical-storm strength before landfall, and the new intensity forecast follows that scenario. However, given the uncertainties in intensity prediction it remains prudent to have a tropical storm watch for portions of the coast of Mexico. After landfall, Vance is expected to dissipate over the mountains of northwestern Mexico. Moisture from Vance and its remnants is spreading northeastward across Mexico and into the south-central United States. This is producing heavy rains over portions of these areas which should continue through Thursday or Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 20.4N 108.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 22.1N 107.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 24.4N 106.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/0600Z 26.5N 106.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm VANCE (EP1/EP212014)
2014-11-04 21:40:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...VANCE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN... As of 1:00 PM PST Tue Nov 4 the center of VANCE was located near 20.4, -108.6 with movement NNE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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