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Tropical Depression VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 26
2014-11-05 15:36:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM PST WED NOV 05 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 051436 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 700 AM PST WED NOV 05 2014 Vance is currently making landfall along the coast of Mexico to the southeast of Mazatlan as a tropical depression with maximum winds estimated to be 25 kt. The cyclone barely meets the qualifications for a tropical cyclone since the low-level center is becoming elongated. Vance is producing a small area of deep convection to the north of the center over western Mexico, and the larger swath of moisture seen in satellite images to its southeast is not directly associated with this system. The weakening cyclone continues to turn to the right, and the latest initial motion estimate is 055/11. Although a 12-hour forecast position is shown, it would not be surprising if Vance dissipates over western Mexico before then. Even though the tropical cyclone is forecast to dissipate soon, moisture from the remnants of Vance and the area to its southeast should continue to spread northeastward across Mexico and into the south-central United States. This is producing heavy rains over portions of these areas, which should continue for another day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 22.7N 105.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 23.0N 105.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression VANCE (EP1/EP212014)
2014-11-05 15:36:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...VANCE MAKES LANDFALL AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER WESTERN MEXICO... As of 7:00 AM PST Wed Nov 5 the center of VANCE was located near 22.7, -105.7 with movement NE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression VANCE Public Advisory Number 26
2014-11-05 15:36:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM PST WED NOV 05 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 051436 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 700 AM PST WED NOV 05 2014 ...VANCE MAKES LANDFALL AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER WESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 105.7W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.7 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF VANCE SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER WESTERN MEXICO TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. VANCE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. A MEXICAN AUTOMATED STATION IN NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE OF NAYARIT RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 52 MPH...84 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH VANCE AND THE AREA TO ITS SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AND THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY VANCE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TODAY. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...100 PM PST. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression VANCE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2014-11-05 15:36:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 05 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 051436 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 1500 UTC WED NOV 05 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression VANCE Forecast Advisory Number 26
2014-11-05 15:35:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 05 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 051435 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 1500 UTC WED NOV 05 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 105.7W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 105.7W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 106.2W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.0N 105.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 105.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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