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Hurricane VANCE Forecast Advisory Number 21

2014-11-04 09:34:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE NOV 04 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 040834 TCMEP1 HURRICANE VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 0900 UTC TUE NOV 04 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN NORTHWARD TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VANCE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 110.0W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 110.0W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 110.3W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.8N 109.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.0N 108.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 24.1N 107.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 26.0N 107.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 110.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Hurricane VANCE Graphics

2014-11-04 06:33:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 04 Nov 2014 05:33:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 04 Nov 2014 03:04:55 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane VANCE (EP1/EP212014)

2014-11-04 06:31:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...VANCE PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND... As of 10:00 PM PST Mon Nov 3 the center of VANCE was located near 18.0, -110.4 with movement NNE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

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Hurricane VANCE Public Advisory Number 20A

2014-11-04 06:31:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM PST MON NOV 03 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 040531 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE VANCE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 1000 PM PST MON NOV 03 2014 ...VANCE PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM PST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 110.4W ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM SE OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN NORTHWARD TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VANCE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 PM PST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.4 WEST. VANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...VANCE IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST EAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...VANCE AND MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE STATES OF SINALOA...NAYARIT....AND DURANGO IN WESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY VANCE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...100 AM PST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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