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Hurricane Norman Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2018-09-04 04:34:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018 392 FOPZ11 KNHC 040234 PWSEP1 HURRICANE NORMAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 0300 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 140.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 140W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 140W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 140W 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 145W 34 4 90(94) 3(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 20N 145W 50 1 66(67) 13(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) 20N 145W 64 X 29(29) 14(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) 25N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 150W 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 36(45) 17(62) 1(63) X(63) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) 1(23) X(23) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 16(20) 11(31) X(31) 25N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) 25N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 30N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 24(44) 2(46) X(46) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 26N 159W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Hurricane Norman (EP1/EP162018)
2018-09-04 04:34:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORMAN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... ...NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Sep 3 the center of Norman was located near 19.8, -140.2 with movement W at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Norman Public Advisory Number 28
2018-09-04 04:34:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018 358 WTPZ31 KNHC 040234 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Norman Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018 ...NORMAN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... ...NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 140.2W ABOUT 970 MI...1560 KM E OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1150 MI...1850 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norman was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 140.2 West. Norman is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A westward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next day or two. A turn toward the west-northwest is anticipated by late Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is forecast during the next few days, but Norman is expected to remain a hurricane through mid-week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Norman. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 1100 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP4, WMO header WTPA34 PHFO, and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Norman Graphics
2018-09-03 22:39:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 03 Sep 2018 20:39:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 03 Sep 2018 20:39:56 GMT
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Hurricane Norman Forecast Discussion Number 27
2018-09-03 22:38:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018 443 WTPZ41 KNHC 032038 TCDEP1 Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018 Visible satellite images continues to depict a fairly symmetric hurricane with a ragged eye, however, a 1615 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass indicated that the eye was open over the southeastern portion of the circulation. Dvorak data T-numbers are slowly decreasing, and a consensus of the various objective and subjective Dvorak CI-numbers support lowering the initial intensity to 90 kt. Norman is forecast to move over marginally warm SSTs and into a drier mid-level environment during the next couple of days. Since the shear is expected to remain fairly low over the hurricane, weakening is anticipated to be gradual through mid-week. After that time, a significant increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear should cause a more rapid rate of filling. The new forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is a blend of the HFIP corrected consensus model and the IVCN intensity consensus aid. Norman is moving quickly westward or 280/17 kt. The hurricane is being steered by a large subtropical ridge to the north and it should keep Norman on a westward heading with some decrease in forward speed over the next couple of days. A weakness in the ridge near 150W should cause Norman to turn west-northwestward, then northwestward after 72 hours. There is still considerable spread in the model guidance as to exactly when and where the turn will take place. The NHC track forecast is again close to the consensus models at the longer range, but the overall guidance envelope changed little, so the updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 19.5N 138.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 19.8N 141.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 20.1N 143.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 20.2N 146.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 20.4N 147.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 21.9N 150.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 24.6N 152.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 27.8N 155.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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