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Summary for Hurricane Norman (EP1/EP162018)
2018-09-03 22:37:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORMAN MARCHING WESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Sep 3 the center of Norman was located near 19.5, -138.4 with movement W at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 971 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane Norman Public Advisory Number 27
2018-09-03 22:37:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018 135 WTPZ31 KNHC 032037 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Norman Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018 ...NORMAN MARCHING WESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 138.4W ABOUT 1085 MI...1750 KM E OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1265 MI...2040 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norman was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 138.4 West. Norman is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). A westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. A turn toward the west-northwest is anticipated on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days, but Norman is forecast to remain a hurricane through mid-week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Norman Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2018-09-03 22:37:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 134 FOPZ11 KNHC 032037 PWSEP1 HURRICANE NORMAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 2100 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 140W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 140W 50 96 X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) 20N 140W 64 72 X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) 20N 145W 34 2 52(54) 42(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) 20N 145W 50 X 7( 7) 62(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) 20N 145W 64 X 1( 1) 35(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) 25N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 32(53) 3(56) X(56) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 11(23) X(23) 25N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 25N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 28(37) 3(40) X(40) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 26N 159W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Norman Forecast Advisory Number 27
2018-09-03 22:37:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 600 WTPZ21 KNHC 032037 TCMEP1 HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 2100 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 138.4W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 210SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 138.4W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 137.6W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.8N 141.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.1N 143.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.2N 146.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.4N 147.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 21.9N 150.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 24.6N 152.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 27.8N 155.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 138.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Norman Forecast Discussion Number 26
2018-09-03 17:56:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018 167 WTPZ41 KNHC 031556 CCA TCDEP1 Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 26...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018 Corrected to remove G-IV flight reference for this afternoon Satellite images indicate that Norman is weakening. The eye is no longer apparent on infrared imagery, and the cloud tops are warming throughout the central dense overcast. The initial wind speed is reduced to 95 kt, which is close to a blend of the Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. Continued weakening is likely over the next several days due to a combination of marginal SSTs, light or moderate shear, and a dry mid-level environment. The new forecast is very similar to the previous one, except lower in the short term to account for the current intensity. Norman has turned westward and is still moving at about 17 kt. A fast westward motion is anticipated over the next few days while a large subtropical ridge holds firm over the central Pacific Ocean. However, a weakness in the ridge from 150W-155W should cause Norman to turn more northwestward after day 3. Model guidance is showing considerable spread at long range, with the UKMET and its ensemble closer to Hawaii, while almost all of the other guidance is much farther northeast. There continues to be a westward shift in the guidance, so the official forecast has been shifted westward at long range. It should be noted, however, that there isn't much support for the UKMET solution in the rest of the guidance, so it seems to be an outlier at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 19.3N 136.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 19.7N 139.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 20.0N 142.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 20.2N 144.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 20.3N 146.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 21.3N 150.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 24.0N 152.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 27.5N 154.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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