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Hurricane Norman Forecast Advisory Number 21
2018-09-02 10:51:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018 654 WTPZ21 KNHC 020851 TCMEP1 HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 0900 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 127.5W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 127.5W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 126.7W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.7N 129.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.6N 133.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.4N 136.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.1N 139.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.8N 144.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 21.5N 149.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 23.0N 152.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 127.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Norman Graphics
2018-09-02 04:56:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 02 Sep 2018 02:56:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 02 Sep 2018 02:56:35 GMT
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Hurricane Norman Forecast Discussion Number 20
2018-09-02 04:36:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 01 2018 602 WTPZ41 KNHC 020236 TCDEP1 Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 01 2018 Norman looked a little ragged in satellite imagery near 0000 UTC. Since that time, though, the hurricane looks better organized, with the eyewall convection better defined in visible and infrared imagery. Satellite intensity estimates have changed little since the past advisory, so the initial intensity remains a possibly generous 90 kt. The initial motion is now 280/11. The hurricane is expected to be steered by a strong deep-layer subtropical ridge to the north, resulting in a generally west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed during the next 2-3 days. After that time, a decrease in forward speed is expected as Norman approaches a weakness in the ridge. There is some spread in the guidance at days 4-5, with the HWRF on the north side of the guidance envelope showing a northwestward turn and the GFS on the south side showing a more westward motion. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies just to the south of the center of the guidance envelope. Norman is expected to be in a light shear environment for 48-72 h. However, during this time the cyclone will be moving over cooler sea surface temperatures and into a drier air mass. Based on the guidance, the intensity forecast calls for little change in strength for 24 h followed by a gradual weakening from 24-72 h. After 72 h, increasing southerly shear should cause a faster weakening. It should be noted that there is a chance that Norman could get stronger than forecast while over warm water during the next 12-18 h as indicated by the HWRF and HMON models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 16.7N 126.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 17.1N 128.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 18.0N 131.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 18.9N 134.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 19.8N 137.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 21.0N 143.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 21.5N 147.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 23.0N 150.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Hurricane Norman (EP1/EP162018)
2018-09-02 04:35:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORMAN CONTINUING WESTWARD AS A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Sep 1 the center of Norman was located near 16.7, -126.0 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane Norman Public Advisory Number 20
2018-09-02 04:35:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 01 2018 486 WTPZ31 KNHC 020235 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Norman Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 01 2018 ...NORMAN CONTINUING WESTWARD AS A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 126.0W ABOUT 1130 MI...1815 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norman was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 126.0 West. Norman is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A general west-northwestward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected through early next week. On the forecast track, Norman will approach the central Pacific basin on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Sunday. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin Sunday night and continue through early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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