je.st
news
Tag: norman
Hurricane Norman Forecast Advisory Number 26
2018-09-03 16:45:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 178 WTPZ21 KNHC 031445 TCMEP1 HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 1500 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 136.6W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 180SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 136.6W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 135.7W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.7N 139.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 142.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.2N 144.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.3N 146.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.3N 150.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 24.0N 152.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 27.5N 154.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 136.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
advisory
forecast
norman
Hurricane Norman Graphics
2018-09-03 10:49:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 03 Sep 2018 08:49:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 03 Sep 2018 09:34:24 GMT
Tags: graphics
norman
hurricane
hurricane graphics
Hurricane Norman Forecast Discussion Number 25
2018-09-03 10:46:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018 349 WTPZ41 KNHC 030846 TCDEP1 Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018 Its possible that Norman has peaked, perhaps permanently this time. Cloud tops have notably warmed around the eye, which itself has become less distinct in IR imagery overnight. The initial intensity has been lowered to 110 kt based on a blend of subjective Dvorak final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT. Based on trends over the past hour or two, it's possible Norman has weakened even more than indicated. All of the intensity guidance suggests that Norman should steadily weaken over the next several days due to a combination of marginal SSTs, moderate shear, and a drier surrounding environment, though this was the case last night as well shortly before Norman quickly re-intensified to major hurricane strength. Since another sudden period of intensification doesn't appear imminent, the new NHC intensity forecast is very close to the consensus through day 5, and only minor changes were made from the previous advisory. The estimated initial motion is now 285/17 kt. Norman should continue moving very quickly toward the central Pacific over the next 24 hours as it is steered by a strong subtropical ridge to the north. By later this week, all of the global models forecast that the hurricane will slow down, and then turn toward the northwest toward a weakness in the ridge. There is still a fair amount of spread in the track guidance, particularly regarding the speed of Norman after it begins to turn northwestward around day 4 or 5, so confidence is in this portion of the track forecast is low. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly south of the previous advisory for the first 72 h, following the HCCA and TVCX consensus aids, but is fairly similar after that. Based on the current forecast, Norman is expected to cross into the central Pacific later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 19.0N 134.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 19.5N 137.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 20.0N 140.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 20.2N 143.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 20.4N 145.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 21.2N 149.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 23.5N 151.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 27.0N 153.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
norman
Hurricane Norman Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2018-09-03 10:46:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 499 FOPZ11 KNHC 030846 PWSEP1 HURRICANE NORMAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 0900 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 135W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 135W 50 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 140W 34 2 97(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 140W 50 X 91(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) 20N 140W 64 X 66(66) 4(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) 20N 145W 34 X 2( 2) 34(36) 51(87) 3(90) X(90) X(90) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 46(50) 5(55) X(55) X(55) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 25(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 34(38) 11(49) 1(50) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) X(16) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) 7(32) 25N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 25N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 30N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 13(34) 1(35) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tags: number
speed
wind
norman
Summary for Hurricane Norman (EP1/EP162018)
2018-09-03 10:45:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORMAN BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AGAIN... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Sep 3 the center of Norman was located near 19.0, -134.6 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
Tags: summary
norman
hurricane
Sites : [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] next »