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Hurricane Norman Forecast Discussion Number 22
2018-09-02 16:38:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 02 2018 561 WTPZ41 KNHC 021438 TCDEP1 Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 02 2018 Norman has made a remarkable and surprising come back today. Satellite images reveal a distinct eye surrounded by a ring of very deep convection, and Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB reached T6.0 around 1200 UTC. These numbers have leveled off since then. On this basis, the initial intensity has been increased to 115 kt, making Norman again a Category Four Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. The hurricane, however, will begin to approach lower SSTs, and although some of the intensity models are more aggressive in forecasting strengthening, the NHC forecast prefers the consensus IVCN, and forecasts a gradual weakening beyond 12 to 24 hours. Norman is moving toward the west-northwest at 16 kt. There is a strong subtropical ridge anchored to the north of Norman, and this flow pattern will continue to steer the hurricane between the west and west-northwest at the same speed for the next 2 to 3 days. By then, the ridge is forecast to be weaker and a turn toward the northwest is expected by the end of the forecast period. Track guidance is in very good agreement, and unanimously, all models forecast the gradual turn to the northwest beyond 4 days. The NHC track forecast is in the middle of the envelope and is not much different from the earlier one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 17.6N 129.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 18.2N 131.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 19.1N 134.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 20.0N 138.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 20.5N 141.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 21.0N 146.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 22.0N 150.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 24.0N 153.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Norman Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2018-09-02 16:37:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018 473 FOPZ11 KNHC 021437 PWSEP1 HURRICANE NORMAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 1500 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 135W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 135W 34 1 84(85) 9(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) 20N 135W 50 X 33(33) 23(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) 20N 135W 64 X 8( 8) 16(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) 40(40) 53(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 60(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 58(65) 4(69) X(69) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 3(29) X(29) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) X(12) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 25(30) 4(34) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 9(23) 25N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 25N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 5(27) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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norman
Summary for Hurricane Norman (EP1/EP162018)
2018-09-02 16:37:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORMAN HAS MADE A REMARKABLE COME BACK AND BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AGAIN... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Sep 2 the center of Norman was located near 17.6, -129.1 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
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Hurricane Norman Public Advisory Number 22
2018-09-02 16:37:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 02 2018 973 WTPZ31 KNHC 021437 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Norman Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 02 2018 ...NORMAN HAS MADE A REMARKABLE COME BACK AND BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AGAIN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 129.1W ABOUT 1295 MI...2085 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Norman was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 129.1 West. Norman is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days with a gradual decrease in forward speed thereafter. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Norman is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely today and Monday, but a gradual weakening trend should then begin. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Norman Forecast Advisory Number 22
2018-09-02 16:37:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018 972 WTPZ21 KNHC 021437 TCMEP1 HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 1500 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 129.1W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 129.1W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 128.3W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.2N 131.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.1N 134.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.0N 138.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.5N 141.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.0N 146.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 22.0N 150.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 24.0N 153.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 129.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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