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Hurricane Norman Graphics
2018-09-02 10:55:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 02 Sep 2018 08:55:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 02 Sep 2018 08:55:03 GMT
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Hurricane Norman Forecast Discussion Number 21
2018-09-02 10:53:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Sep 02 2018 498 WTPZ41 KNHC 020853 TCDEP1 Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 200 AM PDT Sun Sep 02 2018 Norman's structure has continued to slowly improve this morning. A ragged, but fairly clear, eye has been apparent in shortwave and longwave IR imagery for the past several hours, and cloud tops around the eye have generally cooled. The initial intensity has been held at 90 kt, in agreement with the latest Dvorak fixes from TAFB and SAB. However, the most recent objective intensity estimates from the UW-CIMSS ADT are slightly higher, suggesting this estimate could be conservative. Given that Norman appears to be on the upswing, the forecast now allows for some slight re-strengthening over the next 12 h while the hurricane remains over warm waters and the shear is expected to be light. Beyond that time, however, there has been no significant change to the intensity forecast reasoning or the guidance. The cyclone is still expected to gradually weaken as it encounters a marginal environment consisting of cool SSTs, fairly dry air, and by the end of the forecast period, increasing shear. At 24 h and beyond, the NHC forecast is very close to the intensity consensus, and has not been substantially changed from the previous advisory. Norman is beginning to accelerate and the initial motion estimate is 290/11. A strong deep-layer subtropical ridge to the north should keep Norman moving generally westward to west-northwestward through most of the forecast period, with a notable increase in speed for the next day or two. All of the models agree on this general scenario, however there is still some north-south spread in the guidance, with the GFS and ECMWF on opposite sides of the guidance envelope. Like the previous forecast, the official track forecast generally splits these models and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope and the consensus aids, FSSE and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 17.1N 127.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 17.7N 129.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 18.6N 133.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 19.4N 136.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 20.1N 139.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 20.8N 144.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 21.5N 149.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 23.0N 152.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Norman Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2018-09-02 10:52:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018 063 FOPZ11 KNHC 020852 PWSEP1 HURRICANE NORMAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 0900 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 130W 34 6 11(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 15N 135W 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 135W 34 X 14(14) 75(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) 20N 135W 50 X 1( 1) 45(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 77(82) 9(91) X(91) X(91) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 43(43) 17(60) X(60) X(60) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 13(31) X(31) X(31) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 50(52) 12(64) X(64) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 9(27) X(27) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 10(35) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) 25N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 12(28) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Summary for Hurricane Norman (EP1/EP162018)
2018-09-02 10:52:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORMAN MAINTAINING STRENGTH... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Sep 2 the center of Norman was located near 17.1, -127.5 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane Norman Public Advisory Number 21
2018-09-02 10:52:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Sep 02 2018 559 WTPZ31 KNHC 020852 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Norman Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 200 AM PDT Sun Sep 02 2018 ...NORMAN MAINTAINING STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 127.5W ABOUT 1210 MI...1945 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Norman was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 127.5 West. Norman is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected for the next couple of days. The hurricane is forecast to slow down by midweek after crossing into the Central Pacific basin on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in intensity is expected for the next day or so, however, short term fluctuations, up or down, could occur. Gradual weakening is expected to begin by Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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