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Hurricane Norman Public Advisory Number 25
2018-09-03 10:45:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018 763 WTPZ31 KNHC 030845 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Norman Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018 ...NORMAN BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AGAIN... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 134.6W ABOUT 1335 MI...2150 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norman was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 134.6 West. Norman is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). This general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through mid-week. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Norman is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is expected during the next several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Norman Forecast Advisory Number 25
2018-09-03 10:45:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 055 WTPZ21 KNHC 030845 TCMEP1 HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 0900 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 134.6W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 134.6W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 133.7W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.5N 137.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.0N 140.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.2N 143.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.4N 145.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.2N 149.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 23.5N 151.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 27.0N 153.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 134.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Norman Graphics
2018-09-03 04:34:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 03 Sep 2018 02:34:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 03 Sep 2018 03:34:20 GMT
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Hurricane Norman Forecast Discussion Number 24
2018-09-03 04:32:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 02 2018 256 WTPZ41 KNHC 030232 TCDEP1 Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 02 2018 Satellite images indicate that Norman is maintaining its strength this evening. The eye of the hurricane remains distinct and a ring of cold cloud tops surrounds that feature. However, the cloud tops have been warming a little during the past few hours. A blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates supports holding the initial wind speed at 115 kt. Norman is currently located over marginally warm 27 deg C SSTs and it will be moving over slightly cooler waters during the next several days. In addition, the global models show the hurricane moving into an increasingly drier air mass and show a significant increase in shear in 4 to 5 days. All of these conditions suggest that Norman should steadily weaken, and the NHC forecast follows the trend in the model guidance. This forecast is in best agreement with the consensus models HCCA and IVCN. Norman continues to move fairly quickly to the west-northwest, with the latest initial motion estimate the same as before, 285/17. This motion is expected to continue for the next day or so while Norman remains steered by a strong subtropical ridge to its north-northeast. After that time, a decrease in forward speed and then a gradual turn to the northwest are predicted as Norman moves near the edge of the ridge and approaches a significant weakness caused by a large-scale trough. The models agree on this overall scenario, but they differ on the details of where and when Norman makes the northwestward turn. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope and is near the typically most skillful aids, the consensus models. Based on this forecast, Norman is expected to cross into the central Pacific basin in 24 to 36 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 18.6N 132.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 19.2N 135.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 19.9N 138.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 20.4N 141.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 20.7N 144.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 21.5N 148.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 23.4N 150.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 26.2N 153.2W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Norman Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2018-09-03 04:32:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 437 FOPZ11 KNHC 030232 PWSEP1 HURRICANE NORMAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 0300 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 135W 34 97 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 20N 135W 50 44 2(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) 20N 135W 64 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 140W 34 1 58(59) 39(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 20N 140W 50 X 8( 8) 77(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) 20N 140W 64 X 2( 2) 56(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 46(52) 22(74) X(74) X(74) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 22(35) X(35) X(35) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 3(14) X(14) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 12(31) 1(32) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) 7(35) 25N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) 25N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 30N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) 1(22) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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