je.st
news
Tag: norman
Hurricane Norman Graphics
2018-09-03 16:47:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 03 Sep 2018 14:47:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 03 Sep 2018 14:47:01 GMT
Tags: graphics
norman
hurricane
hurricane graphics
Hurricane Norman Forecast Discussion Number 26
2018-09-03 16:46:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018 016 WTPZ41 KNHC 031446 TCDEP1 Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018 Satellite images indicate that Norman is weakening. The eye is no longer apparent on infrared imagery, and the cloud tops are warming throughout the central dense overcast. The initial wind speed is reduced to 95 kt, which is close to a blend of the Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. Continued weakening is likely over the next several days due to a combination of marginal SSTs, light or moderate shear, and a dry mid-level environment. The new forecast is very similar to the previous one, except lower in the short term to account for the current intensity. Norman has turned westward and is still moving at about 17 kt. A fast westward motion is anticipated over the next few days while a large subtropical ridge holds firm over the central Pacific Ocean. However, a weakness in the ridge from 150W-155W should cause Norman to turn more northwestward after day 3. Model guidance is showing considerable spread at long range, with the UKMET and its ensemble closer to Hawaii, while almost all of the other guidance is much farther northeast. There continues to be a westward shift in the guidance, so the official forecast has been shifted westward at long range. It should be noted, however, that there isn't much support for the UKMET solution in the rest of the guidance, so it seems to be an outlier at this time. Hopefully the NOAA G-IV aircraft dropsonde data this afternoon will help resolve these model differences for the 0000 UTC cycle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 19.3N 136.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 19.7N 139.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 20.0N 142.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 20.2N 144.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 20.3N 146.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 21.3N 150.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 24.0N 152.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 27.5N 154.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
norman
Summary for Hurricane Norman (EP1/EP162018)
2018-09-03 16:45:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORMAN WEAKENING WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Sep 3 the center of Norman was located near 19.3, -136.6 with movement W at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 967 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
Tags: summary
norman
hurricane
Hurricane Norman Public Advisory Number 26
2018-09-03 16:45:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018 078 WTPZ31 KNHC 031445 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Norman Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018 ...NORMAN WEAKENING WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 136.6W ABOUT 1205 MI...1935 KM E OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1385 MI...2230 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norman was located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 136.6 West. Norman is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). This general motion is expected for the next couple of days, with a turn toward the west- northwest anticipated on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued slow weakening is forecast for the next 72 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
public
advisory
norman
Hurricane Norman Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2018-09-03 16:45:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 118 FOPZ11 KNHC 031445 PWSEP1 HURRICANE NORMAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 1500 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 135W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 140W 34 91 9(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 140W 50 25 70(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) 20N 140W 64 3 71(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) 20N 145W 34 X 7( 7) 78(85) 8(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) 20N 145W 50 X 1( 1) 46(47) 15(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) 16(16) 14(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 43(53) 6(59) X(59) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 4(21) X(21) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 16(24) 3(27) 25N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 25N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 30N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 31(36) 10(46) X(46) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) X(14) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 26N 159W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
speed
wind
norman
Sites : [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] next »