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Tropical Storm MARIE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2014-08-28 10:30:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 28 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 280830 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 0900 UTC THU AUG 28 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm MARIE Forecast Advisory Number 26
2014-08-28 10:30:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 28 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 280830 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 0900 UTC THU AUG 28 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 127.8W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......160NE 130SE 80SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 240SE 180SW 400NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 127.8W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 127.2W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 25.6N 129.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 60SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.4N 132.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.9N 133.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.0N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 30.7N 137.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 30.7N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 30.5N 140.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 127.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm MARIE Graphics
2014-08-28 04:35:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 28 Aug 2014 02:35:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 28 Aug 2014 02:34:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 25
2014-08-28 04:34:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 280234 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014 The convective pattern has not changed since the last advisory. However, the center of Marie is now over SSTs less than 24C, and the circulation continues to gradually spin down. ASCAT data still showed a sizable area of 50-kt winds several hours ago, so the initial intensity is only lowered to 50 kt, which is on the higher side of the satellite intensity estimates. Water temperatures between 22-23C and a stable environment will cause the cyclone to continue weakening, and Marie could become a convection-free post-tropical cyclone in about 24 hours. A strengthening mid-level high near the coast of California and the Baja California peninsula has caused Marie to accelerate a bit, with an initial motion of 300/14 kt. Marie is forecast to turn northwestward around this high during the next 48 hours, but then slow down considerably and turn westward and west-southwestward by the end of the forecast period when it is steered by lower-level flow. The updated NHC track forecast is a little bit farther north than the previous one beyond day 3 during the remnant low phase, but otherwise there are no significant changes. Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and the coast of southern California will gradually subside through Friday. These swells could still produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding around the time of high tide. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 23.8N 126.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 25.0N 128.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 26.7N 130.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 29/1200Z 28.4N 132.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0000Z 29.6N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/0000Z 30.5N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0000Z 30.5N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0000Z 30.0N 139.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm MARIE (EP3/EP132014)
2014-08-28 04:34:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE WEAKENING AND LIKELY TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON THURSDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 27 the center of MARIE was located near 23.8, -126.4 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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