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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 22
2014-08-27 10:34:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 270834 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 200 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014 Marie continues to slowly weaken. Although deep convection in the eyewall has changed little during the past few hours, cloud tops have warmed outside of the inner core region. In addition, a dry slot is now evident to the north of the center. The initial intensity is lowered a little to 75 kt, using a blend of the latest Dvorak classifications. The hurricane is currently over 25 C water and it will be moving over even cooler water during the next few days. These unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with a more stable air mass should cause the weakening trend to continue. Marie is expected to lose all of its deep convection in 36 to 48 hours when it is forecast to be over sea surface temperatures around 22 C. Satellite fixes suggest that Marie has moved a little to the left of the previous forecast track. The initial motion estimate is 285/11. A turn to the northwest and then north-northwest is expected during the next few days while the weakening system moves around a strong mid-level high builds off the coast of the northern Baja California. Beyond a few days, the shallow system is expected to slow down and turn westward or southwestward in the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast has been nudged southward, mainly to account for the initial motion and position. Very large southerly swells continue to affect much of the Baja California peninsula and the southern California coast. These swells are expected to persist for another day or so and could produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding around the time of high tide. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 21.7N 122.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 22.5N 124.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 23.8N 127.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 25.5N 129.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 27.0N 130.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 30/0600Z 29.5N 132.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 31/0600Z 29.8N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0600Z 29.2N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane MARIE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2014-08-27 10:34:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 27 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 270834 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 0900 UTC WED AUG 27 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Hurricane MARIE (EP3/EP132014)
2014-08-27 10:33:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 27 the center of MARIE was located near 21.7, -122.5 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
Hurricane MARIE Public Advisory Number 22
2014-08-27 10:33:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 270833 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 200 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014 ...MARIE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 122.5W ABOUT 810 MI...1300 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.5 WEST. MARIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MARIE WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATER...AND ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MARIE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AND A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THURSDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB...28.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THURSDAY. LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS A RESULT OF THESE SWELLS...AS WELL AS MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Advisory Number 22
2014-08-27 10:33:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 27 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 270833 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 0900 UTC WED AUG 27 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 122.5W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 30SE 15SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......200NE 170SE 120SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..540NE 430SE 150SW 530NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 122.5W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 121.9W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.5N 124.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.8N 127.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 90SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 25.5N 129.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...170NE 100SE 50SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.0N 130.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...140NE 60SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 29.5N 132.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 29.8N 134.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 29.2N 135.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 122.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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