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Tropical Depression SIMON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25

2014-10-07 22:35:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 07 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 072035 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIMON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 2100 UTC TUE OCT 07 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YUMA AZ 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P PENASCO 34 X 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Summary for Tropical Depression SIMON (EP4/EP192014)

2014-10-07 22:34:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...SIMON WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Oct 7 the center of SIMON was located near 27.9, -116.3 with movement NNE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression SIMON Public Advisory Number 25

2014-10-07 22:34:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE OCT 07 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 072034 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 200 PM PDT TUE OCT 07 2014 ...SIMON WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.9N 116.3W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM W OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... NONE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.3 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H ...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND SIMON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...SIMON OR ITS REMNANT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE STATE OF SONORA IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF AROUND 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARIZONA. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Depression SIMON Forecast Advisory Number 25

2014-10-07 22:33:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 07 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 072033 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 2100 UTC TUE OCT 07 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... NONE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 116.3W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 116.3W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 116.4W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 28.8N 115.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 30.5N 114.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 32.2N 113.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.9N 116.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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