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Tropical Storm SIMON Public Advisory Number 24

2014-10-07 16:35:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 07 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 071435 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 07 2014 ...SIMON LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.7N 116.7W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM W OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.7 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND SIMON IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE STATE OF SONORA IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF AROUND 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARIZONA. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TODAY. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm SIMON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24

2014-10-07 16:35:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 07 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 071435 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM SIMON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 1500 UTC TUE OCT 07 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YUMA AZ 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ENSENADA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P PENASCO 34 X 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm SIMON Forecast Advisory Number 24

2014-10-07 16:35:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 07 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 071435 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 1500 UTC TUE OCT 07 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 116.7W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 50SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 45SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 116.7W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 116.9W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 28.7N 116.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 30.0N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 31.8N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.7N 116.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm SIMON Graphics

2014-10-07 13:50:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 07 Oct 2014 11:50:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 07 Oct 2014 09:04:44 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm SIMON (EP4/EP192014)

2014-10-07 13:44:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 5:00 AM PDT Tue Oct 7 the center of SIMON was located near 27.4, -116.9 with movement NNE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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