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Post-Tropical Cyclone SIMON Public Advisory Number 26
2014-10-08 04:41:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE OCT 07 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 080241 TCPEP4 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 800 PM PDT TUE OCT 07 2014 ...SIMON BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.1N 115.8W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WNW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.8 WEST. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BY THURSDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE STATE OF SONORA IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF AROUND 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARIZONA. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON SIMON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone SIMON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2014-10-08 04:41:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 08 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 080241 PWSEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SIMON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 0300 UTC WED OCT 08 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P PENASCO 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Post-Tropical Cyclone SIMON Forecast Advisory Number 26
2014-10-08 04:40:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 08 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 080240 TCMEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 0300 UTC WED OCT 08 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 115.8W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 115.8W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 116.1W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 28.9N 114.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 30.5N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.1N 115.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON SIMON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression SIMON Graphics
2014-10-07 22:37:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 07 Oct 2014 20:37:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 07 Oct 2014 20:34:44 GMT
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Tropical Depression SIMON Forecast Discussion Number 25
2014-10-07 22:36:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE OCT 07 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 072036 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 200 PM PDT TUE OCT 07 2014 An ASCAT pass from a few hours ago indicates that there are no longer winds of tropical storm force in the circulation. Therefore the system is being downgraded to a depression and the tropical storm watch for Baja California is discontinued. The current intensity is 30 kt, and since the wind shear over Simon is forecast to be very strong and even increase a little more over the next day or so, additional weakening is expected. The interaction with land could cause even more weakening than indicated here. In any event, given the lack of deep convection, the system is likely to degenerate into a remnant low tonight. The north-northeastward motion continues, at around 030/6. A consensus of the dynamical guidance calls for this general direction of motion with a little acceleration, for the next 24-36 hours. This will take Simon, or its remnant low, across north-central Baja California and into Mainland Mexico. Even if Simon or its remnant surface circulation does not make it across the rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, moisture associated with this system is expected to spread across the northern Baja California peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into the U.S. Desert Southwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those regions during the next few days. Please refer to statements from your local weather office for information on hazards specific to your area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 27.9N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 28.8N 115.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 08/1800Z 30.5N 114.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 09/0600Z 32.2N 113.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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