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Tropical Storm SIMON Public Advisory Number 22A
2014-10-07 07:31:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 070531 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SIMON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 1100 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2014 ...HEAVY RAINS AND SQUALLS APPROACHING PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 117.0W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.0 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H ...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS....AND SIMON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 9 INCHES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE STATE OF SONORA IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF AROUND 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARIZONA. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA OVER CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm SIMON Graphics
2014-10-07 05:08:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 07 Oct 2014 02:43:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 07 Oct 2014 03:04:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm SIMON Forecast Discussion Number 22
2014-10-07 04:43:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 070243 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 800 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2014 The cloud pattern of Simon has changed little since the previous advisory. The tropical cyclone continues to produce a small area of deep convection well to the north of the exposed low-level center. Subjective satellite intensity estimates continue to slowly decrease and the initial wind speed has been lowered to 40 kt for this advisory. Westerly shear of 30 kt or more, along with cool water, and a drier mid-level atmosphere should cause the tropical storm to weaken during the next day or so. Simon is expected to degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone by late Tuesday and dissipate within 2 to 3 days. The latest satellite fixes indicate that Simon has turned north-northeastward or 015/7 kt. Simon should move north- northeastward to northeastward in southwesterly flow between a mid-level ridge to its southeast and an approaching mid-latitude trough. The NHC track forecast lies between the ECMWF and the more poleward GFS. The new track is close to the previous advisory through 24 hours, but has been adjusted a little northward thereafter. Even if Simon or its remnant circulation does not make it across the rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, moisture associated with this system is expected to spread across the northern Baja California peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into the U.S. Desert Southwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those regions during the next few days. Please refer to statements from your local weather office for information on hazards specific to your area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 26.5N 117.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 27.5N 116.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 28.7N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/1200Z 29.8N 115.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/0000Z 30.9N 114.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm SIMON (EP4/EP192014)
2014-10-07 04:42:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SIMON EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BUT COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Oct 6 the center of SIMON was located near 26.5, -117.2 with movement NNE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm SIMON Public Advisory Number 22
2014-10-07 04:42:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 070242 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 800 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2014 ...SIMON EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BUT COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.5N 117.2W ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.2 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS....AND SIMON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 9 INCHES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE STATE OF SONORA IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. STARTING LATER TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RAINFALL FROM SIMON OR ITS REMNANTS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE U.S. DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA OVER CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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