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Tropical Storm SIMON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2014-10-07 04:42:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 07 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 070242 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM SIMON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 0300 UTC TUE OCT 07 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm SIMON Forecast Advisory Number 22
2014-10-07 04:42:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 07 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 070242 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 0300 UTC TUE OCT 07 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 117.2W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 45SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 117.2W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 117.2W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 27.5N 116.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 28.7N 116.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 29.8N 115.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 30.9N 114.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.5N 117.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm SIMON Graphics
2014-10-07 01:52:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 06 Oct 2014 23:52:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 06 Oct 2014 21:04:44 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm SIMON (EP4/EP192014)
2014-10-07 01:51:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SIMON TURNS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... As of 5:00 PM PDT Mon Oct 6 the center of SIMON was located near 26.2, -117.2 with movement NNE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm SIMON Public Advisory Number 21A
2014-10-07 01:51:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 062351 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SIMON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 500 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2014 ...SIMON TURNS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.2N 117.2W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.2 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND SIMON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 9 INCHES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE STATE OF SONORA IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. STARTING LATER TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RAINFALL FROM SIMON OR ITS REMNANTS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE U.S. DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA OVER CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SWELLS FROM SIMON ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TODAY AND TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. SWELLS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY THROUGHOUT THESE AREAS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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