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Tropical Storm SIMON Public Advisory Number 21
2014-10-06 22:44:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 062044 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 200 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2014 ...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY... ...BUT SIMON STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 117.4W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.4 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND SIMON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 9 INCHES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE STATE OF SONORA IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. STARTING LATER TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RAINFALL FROM SIMON OR ITS REMNANTS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE U.S. DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SWELLS FROM SIMON ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TODAY AND TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. SWELLS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY THROUGHOUT THESE AREAS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. WIND...WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA OVER CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm SIMON Graphics
2014-10-06 16:37:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 06 Oct 2014 14:37:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 06 Oct 2014 14:33:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm SIMON Forecast Discussion Number 20
2014-10-06 16:35:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 061435 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 800 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2014 Simon's cloud pattern continues to deteriorate...with almost all of the remaining deep convection displaced well to the east and north of the low-level center. Using a blend of Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB yields a current intensity estimate of 40 kt. The vertical shear over the cyclone is currently near 25 kt, and is forecast to increase to 40-50 kt within the next couple of days. Given the hostile dynamical environment, continued steady weakening is expected. The official forecast shows Simon becoming a remnant low in 36 hours, although this event may well occur sooner than that. The motion is now just east of due north or 010/6 kt. Simon is moving along the northwestern periphery of a low- to mid-level anticyclone. An approaching shortwave trough should cause the cyclone to move north-northeastward, with the remnant low moving across the northern Baja California peninsula and then into extreme northwestern mainland Mexico and the southwestern United States over the next couple of days. The official track forecast follows the dynamical model consensus, TVCE, rather closely. Even if Simon or its remnant circulation does not make it across the rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, moisture associated with this system is expected to spread across the northern Baja California peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into the U.S. Desert Southwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those regions during the next few days. Please refer to statements from your local weather office for information on hazards specific to your area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 25.1N 117.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 25.9N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 27.0N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 28.1N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1200Z 29.4N 114.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/1200Z 32.0N 112.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm SIMON (EP4/EP192014)
2014-10-06 16:33:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SIMON CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Oct 6 the center of SIMON was located near 25.1, -117.4 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm SIMON Public Advisory Number 20
2014-10-06 16:33:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 061433 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 800 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2014 ...SIMON CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.1N 117.4W ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.4 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND SIMON IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 9 INCHES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE STATE OF SONORA IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE U.S. DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SWELLS FROM SIMON ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TODAY AND TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. SWELLS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY THROUGHOUT THESE AREAS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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