je.st
news
Tag: simon
Tropical Storm SIMON Graphics
2014-10-06 23:08:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 06 Oct 2014 20:45:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 06 Oct 2014 21:04:44 GMT
Tags: graphics
simon
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm SIMON Forecast Discussion Number 21
2014-10-06 22:44:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 062044 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 200 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2014 Although the tropical cyclone has very little deep convection remaining, a recent ASCAT overpass indicated that the system had not weakened as much as earlier estimated. Data from that pass showed that the current intensity is about 45 kt. Water vapor imagery shows quite a bit of southwesterly shear affecting Simon at this time, and dynamical models show the shear becoming even stronger within a day or two. The official intensity forecast is above most of the numerical guidance and shows the system degenerating into a remnant low in 24 hours. However, since the ASCAT data revealed a slightly larger and stronger cyclone, and considering the uncertainties in the forecast track, it is prudent to issue a tropical storm watch for a portion of the west coast of the Baja peninsula at this time. The motion continues about the same as before, or 010/6 kt. There is little change to the track forecast or reasoning. Simon is moving around the northwestern periphery of a mid-level high pressure area. An approaching shortwave trough should cause the tropical cyclone or its remnant low to move north-northeastward over the next couple of days. The official track forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions, with the former guidance farther north and the latter guidance farther south. Even if Simon or its remnant circulation does not make it across the rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, moisture associated with this system is expected to spread across the northern Baja California peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into the U.S. Desert Southwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those regions during the next few days. Please refer to statements from your local weather office for information on hazards specific to your area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 25.8N 117.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 26.8N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 28.0N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/0600Z 29.0N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1800Z 30.2N 114.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/1800Z 32.0N 112.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
simon
storm
Tropical Storm SIMON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2014-10-06 22:44:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 06 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 062044 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM SIMON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 2100 UTC MON OCT 06 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ENSENADA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P PENASCO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm SIMON Forecast Advisory Number 21
2014-10-06 22:44:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 06 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 062044 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 2100 UTC MON OCT 06 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 117.4W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 117.4W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 117.4W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 26.8N 117.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 28.0N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 29.0N 115.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 30.2N 114.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 32.0N 112.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 117.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tags: number
simon
storm
advisory
Summary for Tropical Storm SIMON (EP4/EP192014)
2014-10-06 22:44:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY... ...BUT SIMON STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Oct 6 the center of SIMON was located near 25.8, -117.4 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Tags: summary
simon
storm
tropical
Sites : [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] next »