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Summary for Tropical Storm SIMON (EP4/EP192014)
2014-10-07 19:35:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SIMON LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON... As of 11:00 AM PDT Tue Oct 7 the center of SIMON was located near 27.8, -116.4 with movement NNE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm SIMON Public Advisory Number 24A
2014-10-07 19:35:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM PDT TUE OCT 07 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 071735 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SIMON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 1100 AM PDT TUE OCT 07 2014 ...SIMON LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.8N 116.4W ABOUT 70 MI...130 KM W OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.4 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND SIMON IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE STATE OF SONORA IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF AROUND 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARIZONA. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TODAY. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm SIMON Graphics
2014-10-07 17:08:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 07 Oct 2014 14:39:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 07 Oct 2014 15:04:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm SIMON Forecast Discussion Number 24
2014-10-07 16:36:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 07 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 071436 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 07 2014 The deep convection associated with Simon has diminished even further, with only a small patch of showers remaining near the north-central Baja California peninsula. Unless significant convection returns to the circulation later today, the cyclone could degenerate into a remnant low by tonight. The intensity is maintained at 35 kt for now, based mainly on continuity from the earlier ASCAT pass. The surface circulation of Simon or its remnant low is likely to dissipate while it moves into the southwestern United States, unless it fails to survive its passage over the mountainous Baja peninsula during the next day or so. The motion is just slightly faster than before, or 025/8 kt. With the cyclone expected to remain embedded in low- to mid-level south-southwesterly flow, this motion should continue until the system loses its identity. The official forecast is close to TVCN, the dynamical model consensus. Even if Simon or its remnant circulation does not make it across the rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, moisture associated with this system is expected to spread across the northern Baja California peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into the U.S. Desert Southwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those regions during the next few days. Please refer to statements from your local weather office for information on hazards specific to your area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 27.7N 116.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 28.7N 116.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 08/1200Z 30.0N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 09/0000Z 31.8N 113.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm SIMON (EP4/EP192014)
2014-10-07 16:35:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SIMON LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Oct 7 the center of SIMON was located near 27.7, -116.7 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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