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Tropical Storm SIMON Public Advisory Number 19
2014-10-06 10:34:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 060834 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 200 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2014 ...SIMON CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE TURNING NORTHWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 117.6W ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.6 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SIMON IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 9 INCHES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE STATE OF SONORA IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE U.S. DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SWELLS FROM SIMON ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. SWELLS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY THROUGHTOUT THESE AREAS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Storm SIMON Forecast Advisory Number 19
2014-10-06 10:34:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 06 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 060834 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 0900 UTC MON OCT 06 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 117.6W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..165NE 135SE 75SW 135NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 117.6W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 117.6W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.3N 117.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 26.4N 117.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 27.6N 116.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 28.8N 115.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 30.2N 114.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 117.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Storm SIMON Graphics
2014-10-06 05:09:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 06 Oct 2014 02:48:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 06 Oct 2014 03:05:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm SIMON Forecast Discussion Number 18
2014-10-06 04:42:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 060242 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 800 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2014 The cloud pattern associated with Simon continues to slowly degrade this evening. The cloud tops have gradually warmed and recent microwave data indicate that the low-level center is located to the southwest of the main convective mass due to moderate southwesterly shear. The latest Dvorak Data T-numbers from SAB and TAFB are 3.5, but current intensity numbers remain higher due to Dvorak weakening constraints. The initial wind speed has been lowered to 60 kt, closer to the data T-numbers and a little below what was supported by the earlier NOAA aircraft data. Increasing southwesterly shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and drier air should cause continued weakening during the next couple of days. Simon is forecast to become a tropical depression within 36 hours and should degenerate to a remnant low by Tuesday, before the center reaches the Baja California peninsula. The updated NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the SHIPS/LGEM guidance and is close to the model consensus. Simon is moving north-northwestward or 345 degrees at about 6 kt. The cyclone should turn northward, then north-northeastward during the next 24 hours around the western side of a mid-level high located near the coast of southwestern Mexico. Although the track guidance generally agrees on this scenario, there continues to be differences in how soon Simon or its remnants will reach the Baja peninsula. The GFS takes the cyclone across the Baja peninsula in about 48 hours, while the ECMWF and UKMET shows this occurring about a day later. The NHC track forecast remains in between these solutions and is close to the multi-model consensus. Even if Simon or its remnant circulation does not make it across the rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, moisture associated with this system is expected to spread across the northern Baja California peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into the U.S. Desert Southwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those regions during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 23.8N 117.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 24.6N 117.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 25.7N 117.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 26.9N 116.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 28.1N 115.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0000Z 30.0N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm SIMON (EP4/EP192014)
2014-10-06 04:42:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SIMON CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Oct 5 the center of SIMON was located near 23.8, -117.6 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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