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Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics
2019-09-24 02:06:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 00:06:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 21:25:08 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)
2019-09-24 02:05:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JERRY CONTINUING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING... As of 8:00 PM AST Mon Sep 23 the center of Jerry was located near 28.6, -68.3 with movement NNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 26A
2019-09-24 02:05:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 240004 CCA TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 26A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 800 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...JERRY CONTINUING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.6N 68.3W ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 68.3 West. Jerry is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion should continue through tonight. A turn to the northeast is expected on Tuesday, followed by a turn to the east-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda by early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 991 mb (29.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by Wednesday. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall across Bermuda through Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics
2019-09-23 22:35:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 20:35:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 20:35:15 GMT
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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 26
2019-09-23 22:32:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 232032 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 The low-level center of Jerry became fully exposed to the west of the convection earlier today. Later, however, new convection formed near or just north of the center. The storm continues to be affected by strong westerly shear associated with a sharp upper-level trough over the southwestern Atlantic. The current intensity estimate remains 55 kt, which is consistent with data from an earlier ASCAT overpass. The dynamical guidance shows only a brief relaxation of the shear over the next several days, and the ambient air mass becomes quite dry in 3 to 5 days. Therefore, slow but steady weakening is forecast. This is close to the latest simple and corrected intensity model consensus predictions. Jerry has slowed its forward speed today and the motion is now just 5 kt toward the north-northwest. The tropical cyclone should continue to move through a weakness in the subtropical ridge tonight, and then turn toward the north and northeast under the influence of a mid-tropospheric trough moving off the northeast U.S. coast. In 2 to 4 days, Jerry is expected to move just north of east while embedded in nearly zonal flow. By the end of the forecast period, some of the models now show a slightly south of east motion as the cyclone moves along the northeast periphery of a subtropical anticyclone. The official track forecast is slower than the previous one, especially during the latter part of the period. This is fairly close to the latest corrected consensus guidance, HCCA. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda by late Tuesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 28.4N 68.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 29.6N 68.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 30.9N 68.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 32.1N 66.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 33.3N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 35.0N 58.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 36.0N 53.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 35.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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