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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 27
2019-09-24 04:38:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 240238 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 Surface and flight-level data from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Jerry this evening indicate that Jerry's maximum sustained winds are holding steady at 55 kt. The measured minimum central pressure of 991 mb is also unchanged. Therefore, the initial intensity for this advisory remains at 55 kt. Jerry is currently moving within a rather harsh environment produced by a high amplitude mid- to upper-level trough situated between the cyclone and the eastern seaboard of the United States. The statistical-dynamical Decay SHIPS from both the GFS and ECMWF show the moderate westerly shear and the inhibiting thermodynamic environment persisting through the entire forecast. Therefore, gradual weakening is forecast. The NHC forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory and is based on the NOAA HFIP HCCA intensity consensus. The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 350/6 kt. Jerry will continue moving within a large break in the subtropical ridge during the next 12 hours or so, and then turn northeastward within the mid-tropospheric southwesterly flow produced by the aforementioned trough. Around mid-period, Jerry should move east-northeastward within the deep-layer mid-latitude zonal flow, then a little to the south of east in the peripheral flow of the subtropical high anchored to the southwest of the cyclone. The official forecast is a little to the south of the previous one beyond day 3, and lies between the TVCN simple consensus and the GFS and ECMWF global models. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda by late Tuesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 29.2N 68.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 30.1N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 31.2N 67.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 32.4N 65.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 33.3N 62.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 34.9N 56.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 35.0N 52.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 33.9N 49.6W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2019-09-24 04:37:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 240237 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 2 4( 6) 43(49) 13(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)
2019-09-24 04:37:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JERRY MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC... ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 23 the center of Jerry was located near 29.2, -68.3 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 27
2019-09-24 04:37:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 240237 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...JERRY MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC... ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.2N 68.3W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 68.3 West. Jerry is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion should continue through tonight. A turn to the northeast is expected on Tuesday, followed by a turn to the east-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda by early Wednesday. Recent data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Jerry's maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 991 mb (29.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by Wednesday. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall across Bermuda through Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 27
2019-09-24 04:36:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 240236 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 68.3W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 150SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 68.3W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 68.3W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 30.1N 68.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.2N 67.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 32.4N 65.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 33.3N 62.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 34.9N 56.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 35.0N 52.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 33.9N 49.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 68.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 24/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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