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Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 25A
2019-09-23 19:51:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 231751 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 25A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 200 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...JERRY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.3N 68.2W ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 68.2 West. Jerry is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion should continue today. A turn to the north is expected tonight followed by a turn to the northeast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by late Tuesday. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall across Bermuda through Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics
2019-09-23 16:43:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 14:43:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 14:43:42 GMT
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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 25
2019-09-23 16:41:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 231441 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 Strong shear associated with an upper-level trough off the southeast U.S. coast continues to affect Jerry, and the low-level center is exposed to the west-southwest of the main convective mass. Observations from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated that the intensity remains near 55 kt. However, if the current sheared state persists, then a weakening trend is likely to commence soon. For now, the official forecast will only show a very slow weakening over the next few days. This prediction is somewhat higher than the intensity model consensus. It should be noted that experience has shown that tropical cyclones at subtropical latitudes tend to be more resilient to shear than those in the deep tropics. Jerry has slowed its forward speed and is now moving north- northwestward at around 6 kt. The storm will continue passing through a break in the subtropical ridge through tonight. On Tuesday, a trough moving off the northeast U.S. coast will cause Jerry to turn northward. Within a couple of days, the trough should steer the tropical cyclone northeastward at a faster forward speed. In days 3-5, Jerry should move east-northeastward to eastward while embedded in the southern portion of the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and close to the model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda by late Tuesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 28.1N 68.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 29.2N 68.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 30.4N 68.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 31.8N 67.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 33.3N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 35.8N 58.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 37.0N 53.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 37.0N 48.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2019-09-23 16:41:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 231441 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 2 4( 6) 20(26) 33(59) 5(64) X(64) X(64) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)
2019-09-23 16:41:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JERRY MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 23 the center of Jerry was located near 28.1, -68.0 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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