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Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2019-09-23 22:31:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 232031 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 2100 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 3 4( 7) 28(35) 25(60) 3(63) X(63) X(63) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)
2019-09-23 22:31:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JERRY MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 23 the center of Jerry was located near 28.4, -68.3 with movement NNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 26
2019-09-23 22:31:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 232031 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...JERRY MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.4N 68.3W ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 68.3 West. Jerry is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion should continue tonight. A turn to the northeast is expected on Tuesday, followed by a turn to the east-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda by early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by Wednesday. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall across Bermuda through Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 26
2019-09-23 22:31:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 232030 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 2100 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 68.3W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 150SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 68.3W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 68.2W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.6N 68.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 30.9N 68.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 32.1N 66.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 33.3N 64.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 35.0N 58.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 36.0N 53.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 35.0N 50.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 68.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 24/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)
2019-09-23 19:51:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JERRY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED... As of 2:00 PM AST Mon Sep 23 the center of Jerry was located near 28.3, -68.2 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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