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Tropical Storm Mario Public Advisory Number 7
2019-09-19 04:52:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 190252 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ...MARIO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 112.2W ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 112.2 West. Mario is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north and north-northeast at a slower forward speed is expected Thursday through Friday night, followed by a turn back to the northwest this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Mario is expected to become a hurricane by late Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Advisory Number 7
2019-09-19 04:52:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 190252 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 112.2W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 112.2W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 112.1W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.2N 112.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.1N 112.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.6N 112.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.2N 112.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.2N 113.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 22.7N 115.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 24.8N 117.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 112.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Mario Graphics
2019-09-18 22:52:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 20:52:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 20:52:59 GMT
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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 6
2019-09-18 22:51:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 182051 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ASCAT data, including from the new ASCAT-C instrument, was very helpful in analyzing the location, size, and intensity of Mario this afternoon. The tropical storm has contracted substantially, and earlier microwave data suggested that it had developed a mid-level eye-like feature. Since that time, it appears that moderate easterly wind shear, associated at least in part with outflow with Mario's larger sibling (Lorena) to the east, has prevented the tropical storm from strengthening at a faster rate. The intensity is nonetheless increased to 55 kt, and this could be conservative given that the ASCAT data showed maximum winds of 50-55 kt. The track and intensity of Mario will depend largely on what happens with Lorena. If Lorena moves inland and weakens, Mario will likely be located within a very favorable environment for intensification. However, if Lorena stays offshore and strengthens (like shown in the latest NHC forecast), it will likely continue to negatively affect Mario for the next several days. Lorena's forecast may become more clear later tonight, but until then the Mario intensity forecast is, and will likely continue to be, highly uncertain. The NHC forecast is slightly above the intensity consensus, but is still well within the intensity model spread. Mario continues to move northwestward at about 10 kt. Most of the global models forecast that Mario will meander generally northward to northwestward for the next couple of days toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. After that, if Lorena survives its brush with Mexico and strengthens near the Baja California peninsula, there is a chance that Mario could turn abruptly eastward as it interacts with the other cyclone. That said, most of the global models show no such interaction occuring, and instead show Mario continuing broadly northward through day 5. The NHC forecast follows the bulk of the guidance northward for now, but it should be noted that uncertainty in the track forecast is still high. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 15.0N 111.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 15.8N 112.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 16.7N 112.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 17.5N 112.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 17.9N 112.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 18.6N 113.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 21.5N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 23.5N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2019-09-18 22:51:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 182051 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 7(15) 1(16) X(16) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 18(20) 17(37) 8(45) 2(47) X(47) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 17(26) 16(42) 13(55) 1(56) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 7(18) 1(19) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) 2(14) X(14) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 17(26) 25(51) 2(53) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 2(18) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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