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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Advisory Number 13
2019-09-20 16:54:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 201454 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 110.1W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 80SE 70SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 110.1W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 110.1W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.6N 110.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.8N 110.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.1N 112.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.3N 113.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.0N 116.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 26.0N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 25.0N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 110.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Mario Graphics
2019-09-20 10:39:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 08:39:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 08:39:29 GMT
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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 12
2019-09-20 10:38:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 200838 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Recent microwave imagery and ASCAT data indicate that Mario's center is located a little to the southwest of previous estimates, near a bursting area of deep convection with cloud top temperatures colder than -80C. The initial intensity estimate remains 55 kt based on the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The UW-CIMSS analysis shows shear currently around 5 kt, but the SHIPS analysis is higher, showing 15 kt. Given the cloud pattern and a banding eye feature seen in a partial GMI overpass around 0740Z, the shear looks on the lower side of that range. The NHC intensity forecast continues to show some strengthening in the short term. After that time the shear increases and the cyclone will be moving into a drier and more stable environment with decreasing SSTs. These factors should result in gradual weakening, with remnant low status expected by day 4. The new NHC intensity forecast is at or above the highest guidance through 24 hours and then is a little above the consensus aids but below the higher SHIPS and LGEM forecasts. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 030/4, as Mario appears to have slowed and turned more poleward during the past few hours. The latest global models have trended toward more interaction between Mario and Lorena this cycle. The GFS and UKMET show a merger of the two systems within 24 hours. Alternatively, the ECMWF shows a weakening Mario absorbing Lorena after 48 hours near the west coast of the Baja California peninsula with a track well east of the rest of the guidance. The NHC forecast keeps the systems separate for now, with Lorena shown as dissipated in 96 hours. However, a merger is possible by 48 hours. The new NHC track shows Mario turning northward and then northwestward within 24 hours as a mid-level ridge builds over northern Mexico. Late in the period, a weakening Mario is expected to turn westward and then west-southwestward under the influence of a large low-level ridge over the north Pacific. The new NHC track is to the right of the TVCE consensus, but is actually bit to the left of the previous NHC track given the initial position and motion of the system during the past few hours. Given the uncertainty in the degree of interaction with Lorena, confidence is low in the details of the track forecast even within the first 48 hours, and additional adjustments may be needed later today. Data from the above-mentioned ASCAT pass were used to adjust the initial 34-kt wind radii. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 17.6N 110.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 18.4N 110.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 19.5N 110.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 20.7N 112.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 21.6N 113.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 24.0N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 24.5N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/0600Z 24.0N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Tropical Storm Mario (EP4/EP142019)
2019-09-20 10:35:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIO MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... As of 3:00 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 the center of Mario was located near 17.6, -110.2 with movement NNE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Mario Public Advisory Number 12
2019-09-20 10:35:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 200835 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 ...MARIO MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 110.2W ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 110.2 West. Mario is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A sharp turn toward the north and then toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Saturday, with this motion expected to continue through Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible today, with weakening expected to begin on Saturday and continue through Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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