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Summary for Tropical Storm Mario (EP4/EP142019)
2019-09-20 04:31:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIO A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 9:00 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Mario was located near 17.6, -110.2 with movement NE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Mario Public Advisory Number 11
2019-09-20 04:31:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 200231 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...MARIO A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 110.2W ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 110.2 West. Mario is moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A sharp turn toward the north and northwest is expected on Friday and Saturday, with the northwestward motion continuing through the weekend. Satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight or on Friday. Weakening is likely to begin by Saturday and continue through the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Advisory Number 11
2019-09-20 04:30:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 200230 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 110.2W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 150SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 110.2W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 110.4W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.5N 109.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.6N 110.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.5N 111.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.3N 112.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.2N 115.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 24.7N 118.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 24.4N 119.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 110.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Mario Graphics
2019-09-19 22:54:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 20:54:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 21:51:54 GMT
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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 10
2019-09-19 22:53:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 192053 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 It's become clear since the issuance of the last advisory that the low level center of Mario is displaced well east of its convection. In fact, a good portion of the center has been exposed this afternoon. The intensity has been lowered to 50 kt based on a blend of the most recent Dvorak Final-T and Current Intensity numbers from TAFB. A significant change to the track forecast was required based on the adjusted initial position of Mario, and the cyclone is now forecast to move much farther east during the next couple of days. The track models are still in extremely poor agreement on how much Mario and Lorena will interact over the next 2 days, and this is further complicated by the fact that Lorena will move over or very near the Baja California peninsula during that time. The NHC forecast still carries Mario as an independent system through 5 days, but confidence in the forecast remains low. For better or worse, the NHC forecast is close to TVCE at most of the forecast period, but is now just east of the consensus for the first 24 h, given current trends. Merger or not, shear from Lorena will likely affect Mario for the next couple of days. As long as Lorena continues to produce substantial convection, this shear should prevent Mario of significantly strengthening, though small short-term fluctuations are still possible. By the end of the forecast period, Mario is forecast to reach cooler waters and encounter dry air, and will likely become post-tropical. The new official intensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus IVCN throughout the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 17.1N 110.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 17.8N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 19.0N 109.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 20.3N 110.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 21.2N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 22.9N 114.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 24.5N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 25.0N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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