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Tropical Storm Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2019-09-20 10:35:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 200835 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0900 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 1 45(46) 5(51) X(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) 20N 110W 50 X 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 110W 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 18 61(79) 3(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) ISLA SOCORRO 50 1 25(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) 1(12) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 3(14) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Advisory Number 12
2019-09-20 10:35:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 200835 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0900 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 110.2W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 80SE 70SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 150SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 110.2W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 110.3W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.4N 110.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 80SE 70SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.5N 110.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.7N 112.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.6N 113.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.0N 117.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 24.5N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 24.0N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 110.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm Mario Graphics
2019-09-20 04:32:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 02:32:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 02:32:25 GMT
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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 11
2019-09-20 04:31:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 200231 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 A new, solid burst of deep convection developed over Mario's center a little after 2200 UTC and has persisted since that time. As a result, Dvorak intensity estimates went back up to T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate was 50-55 kt. As a result, Mario's initial intensity has been brought back up to 55 kt. Mario is essentially being pulled northeastward, or 045/8 kt, toward the circulation of Tropical Storm Lorena. That being said, all the major global models are now in agreement that Mario will not merge with Lorena, and a strengthening mid-level ridge over northern Mexico should force Mario to turn sharply northward and then northwestward during the next 2 days. This northwestward motion is likely to continue for the rest of the 5-day forecast period, with the cyclone's forward speed slowing down on days 4 and 5 as it moves into a weaker steering pattern. This forecast reasoning is not too different from the previous forecast, although the new NHC track has been nudged a bit to the left of the previous one to account for an overall shift in the guidance envelope. It should be noted that the deterministic ECMWF is an outlier and brings Mario to the Baja California peninsula as a weakening storm, but the bulk of that model's ensemble members favor the ocean-ward tracks shown by the other models. These ensemble solutions help to increase our confidence in the NHC track forecast. UW-CIMSS is analyzing about 5 kt of shear over Mario, and given the expanding convective canopy over the center, this could definitely be realistic. The shear could remain low enough for the next day or so to allow for some strengthening, which is shown by a number of the intensity models, and by extension, the NHC forecast. After 24 hours, increasing easterly shear is likely to lead to gradual weakening, with colder waters leading to a dissipation of all convection by day 4, if not sooner. The NHC forecast therefore now shows Mario degenerating into a remnant low on day 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 17.6N 110.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 18.5N 109.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 19.6N 110.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 20.5N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 21.3N 112.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 23.2N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 24.7N 118.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/0000Z 24.4N 119.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2019-09-20 04:31:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 200231 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 4 66(70) 12(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) 20N 110W 50 X 20(20) 13(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) 20N 110W 64 X 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 34 16 27(43) 5(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) ISLA SOCORRO 50 1 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 7(16) X(16) X(16) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) 1(13) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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