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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 9
2019-09-19 16:53:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 191453 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 The intensity of Mario is still 55 kt, based on a blend of objective and subjective satellite intensity fixes, but these estimates likely have a higher-than-normal uncertainty. Recent microwave and first-light visible imagery implies that the low-level center of Mario may now be displaced to the east of most of its deep convection, and if this is actually the case, the winds may very well have decreased since the last advisory. Mario is currently embedded within low- to mid-layer southwesterly flow and this should cause the cyclone to move generally northeastward or north-northeastward for the next day or two. What happens after that depends largely on Lorena. The odds that Mario (or its remnants) will directly interact with Lorena (or its remnants) have increased, but it is still unclear whether one cyclone will absorb the other or if they will have a binary interaction and rotate around one another. Confidence in the forecast is therefore low, but will hopefully increase later today after a reconnaissance plane provides more information about the state of Lorena. The NHC forecast lies near the middle of the vast guidance envelope and keeps Mario as a distinct system through day 5, but significant changes may be required to the track forecast later today. The intensity forecast is no clearer. Microwave imagery overnight showed that Mario had once again developed a well-defined convective inner-core. However, more recent imagery this morning suggests that the tropical storm has become strongly tilted with height. The poorly organized vertical structure should prevent the cyclone from significant strengthening in the short term and moderate to strong vertical wind shear is expected to continue for the next several days. The official intensity forecast is quite a bit lower than the previous one. It now lies closer to the intensity consensus but it should be noted that it is too soon to completely rule out Mario powering up to hurricane strength at some point during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 16.5N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 17.2N 111.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 18.0N 110.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 19.0N 110.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 20.2N 111.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 22.1N 114.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 24.0N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 25.0N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Mario (EP4/EP142019)
2019-09-19 16:51:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIO APPEARS TO BE LESS ORGANIZED... As of 9:00 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Mario was located near 16.5, -111.5 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Mario Public Advisory Number 9
2019-09-19 16:51:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 191450 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...MARIO APPEARS TO BE LESS ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 111.5W ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 111.5 West. Mario is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A north-northeast or northeast heading at a similar forward speed is expected for the next day or two. After that time, Mario could turn northwestward, but confidence in the forecast is low. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Advisory Number 9
2019-09-19 16:51:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 191450 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 111.5W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 120SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 111.5W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 111.9W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.2N 111.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.0N 110.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.0N 110.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.2N 111.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.1N 114.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 24.0N 117.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 25.0N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 111.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2019-09-19 16:51:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 191450 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 30(33) 19(52) 2(54) X(54) X(54) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 39(40) 28(68) 8(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 8( 8) 19(27) 7(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 15(20) 2(22) X(22) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 1(13) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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