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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 14
2019-09-20 22:46:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 202046 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 A resumption of northeasterly shear has caused the center of Mario to peak out to the northeast of its convective canopy. This is the second day in row that the low-level center of Mario has become exposed after it developed a low- to mid-level eye in microwave imagery the previous night. ASCAT data from shortly before 1800 UTC showed maximum winds around 50 kt, so the intensity estimate is still 55 kt, assuming a little undersampling has occurred. All of the intensity guidance indicates that Mario has already peaked and should only weaken from now on. Given how the last few nights have gone, I am not confident that Mario will weaken as quickly as the models suggest, but it does seem likely that steady weakening will begin by tomorrow afternoon, if not sooner. The tropical storm will reach some very cold water by 72 h, and it is forecast to become a remnant low at that time. The official intensity forecast is slightly lower than the previous one, but it is above most of the guidance for the first 72 h. The track forecast remains highly uncertain, especially beyond 24 h. The guidance spread is a little lower than it was before, but the run-to-run consistency is still quite low. In general, the models are calling for less binary interaction between Mario and Lorena, with Mario simply lifting northward to north-northeastward in Lorena's wake. As a result, Mario is now forecast by most of the models to move closer to the Baja California peninsula than it was before. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted substantially to the east beyond 24 h accordingly, and there remains a distinct chance that Mario will directly affect portions of the Baja California peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 18.0N 110.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 18.7N 110.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 19.8N 110.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 21.0N 111.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 22.6N 112.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 25.3N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1800Z 26.5N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Mario (EP4/EP142019)
2019-09-20 22:46:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIO NOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... As of 3:00 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 the center of Mario was located near 18.0, -110.0 with movement N at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Mario Public Advisory Number 14
2019-09-20 22:46:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 202046 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 ...MARIO NOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 110.0W ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Mario. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 110.0 West. Mario is moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h). A faster motion toward the north or north-northwest is expected tonight and tomorrow. The tropical storm could then turn northwestward late this weekend. On the forecast track, Mario is forecast to move near or west of the southern Baja California peninsula on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast to begin on Saturday and continue through Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Advisory Number 14
2019-09-20 22:46:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 202046 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 110.0W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 100SE 70SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 110.0W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 110.1W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.7N 110.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.8N 110.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.0N 111.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.6N 112.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 25.3N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 26.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 110.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2019-09-20 22:46:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 202046 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 30 39(69) 5(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) 20N 110W 50 2 16(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) 20N 110W 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 55 16(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) ISLA SOCORRO 50 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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