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Summary for Tropical Storm Mario (EP4/EP142019)

2019-09-19 22:53:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...DISORGANIZED MARIO NOW HEADING NORTHEASTWARD... As of 3:00 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Mario was located near 17.1, -110.4 with movement NE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Mario Public Advisory Number 10

2019-09-19 22:53:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 192053 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...DISORGANIZED MARIO NOW HEADING NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 110.4W ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 110.4 West. Mario is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected tonight and early Friday. A turn toward the north is anticipated by late Friday. After that time, Mario could turn northwestward, but confidence in the forecast is low. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Storm Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

2019-09-19 22:53:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 192053 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X 15(15) 51(66) 5(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) 20N 110W 50 X 1( 1) 20(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 7( 8) 10(18) 2(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 7(15) 1(16) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Advisory Number 10

2019-09-19 22:52:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 192052 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 110.4W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 120SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 110.4W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 110.8W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.8N 109.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.0N 109.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.3N 110.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.2N 111.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.9N 114.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 24.5N 116.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 25.0N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 110.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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