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Summary for Tropical Storm Mario (EP4/EP142019)

2019-09-21 10:58:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...MARIO WEAKENING AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD... As of 3:00 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 the center of Mario was located near 18.9, -110.3 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Mario Public Advisory Number 16

2019-09-21 10:58:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 210858 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 ...MARIO WEAKENING AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 110.3W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Mario. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 110.3 West. Mario is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slightly faster northwestward to north-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Mario is expected to become a tropical depression on Sunday and a remnant low on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Advisory Number 16

2019-09-21 10:58:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 210858 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 110.3W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 100SE 70SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 110.3W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 110.2W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.6N 110.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 20.8N 111.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.3N 112.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.7N 113.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.6N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 110.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 15

2019-09-21 04:42:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 210242 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Recent geostationary imagery from GOES-17 suggests that the center of Mario is located on the northeastern edge of the convective canopy, which is consistent with the northeasterly shear analyzed by UW-CIMSS and the SHIPS model. The initial intensity remains 55 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The intensity guidance shows steady weakening during the next 72 hours, with Mario expected to spin down due to persistent moderate to strong shear and a track over cooler SSTs by 48 hours. Deep convection should be gone by 72 hours, and remnant low status is shown by that time, with dissipation expected by 96 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, but on the high end of the guidance near the LGEM model. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 360/04, as the center location has been difficult to pinpoint without any recent microwave imagery. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one, showing Mario moving north-northwestward and then northwestward in the wake of Lorena, and is close to the HCCA and TVCE consensus. While this forecast keeps the center of the weakening Mario offshore of the Baja California peninsula, some impacts there are still possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 18.4N 110.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 19.1N 110.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 20.3N 111.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 21.8N 111.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 23.3N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 26.0N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan

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