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Tropical Storm Lidia Forecast Advisory Number 7

2017-08-31 10:47:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 31 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 310847 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142017 0900 UTC THU AUG 31 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF PUERTO CORTES TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO... NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO... AND NORTH OF HUATABAMPITO TO GUAYMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS... NORTH OF LORETO TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA... AND NORTH OF GUAYMAS TO BAHIA KINO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUERTO CORTES TO EAST OF LA PAZ A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO LORETO * MAINLAND MEXICO FROM BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO GUAYMAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR NORTH OF LORETO TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA * MAINLAND MEXICO NORTH OF GUAYMAS TO BAHIA KINO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 109.4W AT 31/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......140NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 109.4W AT 31/0900Z AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 109.3W FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 22.3N 109.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.6N 110.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.1N 111.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.7N 112.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 29.2N 115.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 30.0N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 30.5N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 109.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm Lidia Graphics

2017-08-31 07:37:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 31 Aug 2017 05:37:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 31 Aug 2017 03:43:26 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Lidia (EP4/EP142017)

2017-08-31 07:35:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...LIDIA MOVING TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 12:00 AM MDT Thu Aug 31 the center of Lidia was located near 20.9, -108.9 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Lidia Public Advisory Number 6A

2017-08-31 07:35:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1200 AM MDT Thu Aug 31 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 310535 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lidia Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 1200 AM MDT Thu Aug 31 2017 ...LIDIA MOVING TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 108.9W ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Baja California Sur from Puerto Cortes to east of La Paz A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur from Puerto Cortes to San Evaristo * mainland Mexico from Bahia Tempehuaya to Huatabampito A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Baja California Sur from north of San Evaristo to Loreto * north of Puerto Cortes to Puerto San Andresito A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in western Mexico and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was estimated by NASA Global Hawk dropsonde data and satellite images near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 108.9 West. Lidia is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia will be near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula by late today and will move across the peninsula on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Lidia still has the opportunity to be near hurricane strength near the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) to the east of the center. The minimum central pressure based on the NASA Global Hawk data is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches across the Mexican states of Baja California Sur and western Jalisco, with isolated maximum totals of 20 inches. In the Mexican states of Sinaloa, Nayarit, Colima, southern Michoacan, southern Sonora and central Jalisco, rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are expected. These rains are expected to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area later this morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area late today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the warning area in mainland Mexico starting late today, and in the watch areas in Baja California Sur on Friday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds on the southern portion of Baja California Sur. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Lidia are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and western Mexico. These swells are beginning to reach the southern portions of Baja California Sur, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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